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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 251922
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND VICINITY WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. A SECTION OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
UP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THIS TIME FRAME WAS TO SPEED UP THE DEPARTURE
OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION BY SEVERAL HOURS. 12Z NAM DEPICTED
THIS TREND WELL.

THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NJ WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20 MPH EARLY. LOW
TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH. NO THREAT OF FROST
FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODERATING TREND EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND
CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY, SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
THEY DID TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKED VERY WELL, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT UNCHANGED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK,
CANADA ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WE ARE ANTICIPATING A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S
IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. MINIMUM READINGS MAY BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. SOME SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AND
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE DRY AIR
SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND WE ARE EXPECTING A 30 PLUS DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.

ANOTHER COOL DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
HAVE MODIFIED A BIT BY THAT TIME AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WE MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL.

THE WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 90
EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S DUE TO THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WILL CONTINUE AS CEILINGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FEET DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BUT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20 KT
GUSTS PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25+ KT BY MID-MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
MVFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
EVENING PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED BACK TO SCA
FLAG OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO