Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 201938 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND OVER CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR OUR REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LESSEN, ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 36 DEGREES, SO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE REGION. MET/MAV BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER, SO COOLING MARINE IMPACT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SOME VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT DOES NOT SEEM AS THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION. EASTERLY WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING TO WIND SPEEDS UNDER 6 KT. MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS STARTING OFF EASTERLY AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SPEEDS RISE TO THE 6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THOSE WINDS START TO DIMINISH, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH EAST FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE SCA RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SCA WILL EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO, THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN MARINE ZONE IS NOT AS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE SCA WILL ALSO EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY NIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM BARNEGAT INLET SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUST NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-106. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>023-027. DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DEZ001>003. MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ451>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431-450. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO

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