Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 252052 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 352 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO NOW INCLUDE PARTS OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND (EXCLUDING CECIL COUNTY), CENTRAL DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CLOUDIER THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST, REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD AND GIVE US HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SNOW AS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS EVENT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO EDGE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING ANY SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS, WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS YOU HEAD NORTH, THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WE WILL RADIATE FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS IN THOSE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO BECOME CLOUDY, WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW WILL IMPACT KACY AND KMIV BETWEEN 09-11Z, WITH SNOW PUSHING INTO KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN AROUND 12Z. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD AND SHOULD MAKE IT TO KABE/KRDG AROUND 14-15Z. AS THE SNOW MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN SNOW AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KMIV AND KACY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-12 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING. A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ021>025. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431- 452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA

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