Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 190808 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 408 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WINDS ARE WEAK EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR PORTION OF THE DELMARVA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT, NOW CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND PUSH OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL HELP PRODUCE AND ONSHORE FLOW AND BEGIN TO BRING IN ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS THE POCONOS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS DELMARVA. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BY DAYS END. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL THIS MORNING. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTIONED FOR TODAY. IN GENERAL, A LOWER CONFIDENCE SKY FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT SUNSHINE BEFORE THE ONSHORE FLOW HELPS PRODUCE THE CLOUDS. IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY, THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NORTHWEST NJ. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS AND ENDS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS, INCLUDING STAT GUIDANCE, HAVE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR UPSLOPE ZONES WEST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND LOCALES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUT NORTHWEST ZONES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH, THERE IS NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AROUND AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO BRING IN SOME MOISTER AND WARMER AIR. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONTS PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE AND IT LIKELY WONT REACH THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND WON`T FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY ISN`T TERRIBLY STRONG BUT IT IS AVAILABLE AND WE CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ACROSS OUR AREA AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. WHERE SKIES START TO CLEAR A BIT MORE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS, WE COULD SEE TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S. MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 8-12 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER, WITH MOST PLACE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S, WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PRETTY DRY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS TO START THE DAY, EAST WINDS TO FINISH. SHOULD SEE THE GRADIENT TIGHTEN A BIT AND SOME WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. TONIGHT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WE`LL DROP THINGS DOWN TO MVFR, 1500-2500 FT. SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KABE, KRDG, KACY, AND KMIV. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST, BUT LIGHTEN UP A BIT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY. && .MARINE... BOTH BUOY 44065 AND 44025 ARE FINALLY BACK! TODAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO TODAY`S NORTHERN WATER GRIDS AND ADDED SCA HEADLINES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS END UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP BUILD 5 FOOT SEAS. FURTHER SOUTH WE`LL HOLD OFF ANY SCA HEADLINES. TONIGHT...ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WE`VE BACKED OFF OF HEADLINES AND HAVE DELAYED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, WE`LL HAVE THE SCA RUN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A LOWER END SCA WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...SEAS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED HEADING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY START TO SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR A PERIOD UNTIL SEAS FALL BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SUNDAY...WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION, WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .RIP CURRENTS... WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO

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