Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 050119 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 919 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. AS THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST SOME, THE FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS HELPING TO TOSS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA, WHICH LINKS UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SEND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND OUT TO SEA WITH LIGHT WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG LATE, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STEADIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL DEPEND THOUGH ON HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS IS AROUND AS WELL, THEREFORE WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG, EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCAL FOG SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SUNDAY...SOME LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE...
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IT APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE OF THE COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...GORSE

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