Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240726 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 326 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE ON THURSDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THE COMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL DAY IS IN STORE ACRS THE REGION, WITH HIGH PRES TO THE N. A WEAK S/WV WAS MOVG ACRS THE REGION THIS MRNG. IT HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN WRN/CNTRL PA, BUT THEY SEEM TO BE DECREASING AS THEY MOVE EWD. VIRTUALLY ALL MDL GUID HAS THEM COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WILL CARRY SOME VERY LOW POPS W THRU 12Z, JUST IN CASE. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY UNTIL THE S/WV COMPLETELY PASSES BY THEN SUN SHOULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE DURG THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML TODAY BUT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND. IF THE SUN MAKES AN EARLIER APPEARANCE, WE CUD BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THE FLOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND COULD EVEN GO CALM. LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL HAVE A WMFNT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW BY DAYBREAK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NEVERTHELESS, WE ARE FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ENOUGH WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR A MAINLY LIQUID EVENT. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AT THE START TO RESULT IN EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A BIT OF SLEET AT THE ONSET IN PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE ARE FORECASTING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE DURING THAT PERIOD ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A MODERATE SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR REGION AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND MILD AIR WILL RESULT IN BUILDING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG DURING THAT TIME. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE FORECASTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD FAVOR THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE LATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS REMAINING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BRING SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS TO OUR REGION ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. THE AXIS OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS MAY START TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WK UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVG THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LWR CLOUDS (BUT STILL VFR) THRU THE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN, BEFORE THE SKY BEGINS TO CLEAR. FEW CLOUDS, IF ANY ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY TO SLIGHTLY NELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY GO CALM. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AROUND KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVERHEAD. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... A QUIET PD IS IN STORE ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRES TO THE N TODAY AND THEN BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND LIGHT ELY FLOW TONIGHT. BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AND BUILDING SEAS. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATER MAY BUILD TO 6 OR 7 FEET. THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE COLD WATER SHOULD KEEP GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE WATER`S SURFACE EVEN WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG

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