Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 141700 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 100 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS. THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND. SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000 FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW. QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. && .RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK DE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...DRAG 1P SHORT TERM...DRAG 1P LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 1P MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 1P RIP CURRENTS...1P

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