Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 291242 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 842 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OFFSHORE WHERE IT BECOMES MORE CENTERED. THIS WILL START A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT TODAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A WARMER AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND, AND WITH HEATING WE SHOULD GET SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT. AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. IT IS A COOL START ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE 50S. THESE WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH AMPLE HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. HIGH PRES MOVES A BIT MORE EWD AND THERE CUD BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE TO TALK ABOUT. DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT IT SHOULD BE FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD DRY. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED, MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN THE WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY. TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. && .MARINE... NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. WIND WILL GENLY BE S TO SW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH GUST IN THE 15 TO PSBLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY ERLY TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. && .RIP CURRENTS... SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE A FULL MOON AND S TO SW WIND THAT COULD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE, ESPECIALLY DURG THE LATE AFTN. ALSO SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AND WAVE PERIODS OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL GIVE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN NEW JERSEY TODAY. IN DELAWARE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW RISK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.