Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 302002 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 402 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to our north will slowly move eastward through Sunday. Persistent low pressure to the west will weaken and move toward the Great Lakes and then toward New England by Monday, bringing its associated cold front through the area. High pressure then builds back to the north for Tuesday into Thursday with northeast flow returning once again. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Areas of drizzle tonight. Persistent rains along the NNJ coast fairly well modeled by the ARW. During the middle of the night the light pcpn may shut off but there seems to be some uvm and increasing pwat from the shower band in VA edging northeast so that pops may increase toward dawn over the southwest part of our area. Confidence below average on measurable rain. northeast wind slowly diminishing. This fcst was a 50 50 blend of the gfs/nam mos with some pop adjustment toward the ARW. The Nanticoke may cresting now in southern DE (Bridgeton) which reached its highest stage since the 1990s. The 10-14" rains were real from southern Kent County through a large part of Sussex County DE. DOX STA had a good handle on the amounts. Legacy STP that most everyone sees is too low and used an 80 20 blend weighted to the DOX STA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cloudy and not quite as cool... a bit of drizzle or low top areas of light to moderate rain expected in the remaining cool ne flow as a short wave rotates newd through the mid Atlantic states. 50 50 blended 12z/30 gfs/nam mos guidance modulated slightly by the EC and ARW qpf which favors more rain south and west part of our forecast area. northeast wind.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather continues for the first part of the extendd period, with improvement after that. The upper level low pres sys that has been bringing us the cloudy and wet conds for a good portion of the region will continue to move nwd and weaken through Sun into Mon. By Mon the low will be over New Eng and will have almost opened up. Until that time expect cloudy conds to continue with at least some chcs of showers. The best precip chcs look to be Sat night. and psbly Sun aftn. There cud be some breaks in the clouds on Sun. THen there cud be some more sct shwrs into Mon, especially up n with the fropa. Most of Sun and especially Mon will be dry and we will likely see some sun as conds improve, but until the upr low finally exits, there will be at least some precip chcs. Finally by Tue, high pres builds in aloft and to our ne at the sfc. This will bring more nely flow to the area, but will keep things genly dry. THe guid does want to bring some light qpf around Wed in the ne flow and its psbl, but keep things dry for now. So its a dry fcst for the remainder of the week. The guid still differs on Matthew. Most of the global mdls bring it somewhere twd the sern conus cst but then turn it newd before it gets to our area. The ECMWF is much slower keeping it over the Caribbean through the 10 day pd, in its latest run. We will continue monitoring the forecast over the next several days for adjustments to the forecast track. Please see latest NHC advisories for the latest information on Hurricane Matthew. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Remainder of this afternoon...MVFR cigs variable IFR conditions in periods of rain and drizzle. Gusty northeast winds 15 to 25 kt slowly diminishing late. Tonight...Conditions probably lowering to IFR everywhere with areas of drizzle and may be a little rain. North - northeast wind may still be gusty to 20 kt. Saturday...IFR cigs may improve MVFR CIGS later in the day. Vsby may be restricted at times to 1 to 3 miles in areas of mist or rain. northeast wind. OUTLOOK... Sat night...A prolonged period of MVFR or IFR conditions with some light rain over the TAF sites through the period. Moderate confidence. Sun-Mon...Some improvement, psbly to VFR. Moderate confidence. Monday night-Tuesday...Mainly VFR, however there cud be reduced cigs/vsbys as NE flow reestablishes itself, especially if there is any rain. Low to moderate confidence.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gale conditions continue on the NJ Atlantic coastal waters into this evening. Once winds drop below gale, a small craft advisory will replace the GLW through at least Saturday. The SCA on DE Bay should be able to drop late this evening. (northeast winds were much stronger than expected through early this afternoon on lower DE Bay) On the De Atlantic waters ...SCA conditions will probably convert to SCA hazardous seas sometime Saturday morning. OUTLOOK... Sat night...sca conds early before seas drop below. Sun-Mon night...Conditions expected to remain below SCA levels. Tue...SCA conds may return to the waters. Tue night thru Wed...SCA conds psbl. RIP CURRENTS... This mornings forecast was the last of this season. Thank you for your support, especially spreading the safety messages. We think lack of awareness of the ip currents silent danger is why so many lives are lost. For best chance of safety, swim in the presence of lifeguards. There is a high risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents along the NJ shore and the DE beaches today. Water temps have cooled into the upper 60s to around 70. So for those who still enjoy swimming in those somewhat cooler waters... be alert for the potential strong and dangerous rips toward the end of next week as a by product of the probable distant seaward passage of Matthew, provided Matthew makes it north of Bermuda.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
The heaviest rains already occurred. Southern DE...highest stream stage since 1999 occurring...the 10-14" rains were real. DOX STA has a good handle on the amounts. Legacy STP that most everyone sees is too low and I`m using for now, an 80 20 blend, weighted to the DOX STA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There was a substantial error in the Reedy Point data that temporarily misguided my actions regarding tidal flooding from upper DE Bay through the tidal DE. We now think the data is reasonably accurate there. a new CFAdvy was issued to cover the NJ and DE coasts for this evenings high tide where we expect no more, than minor tidal inundation flooding, hopefully for the last high tide cycle in this particular episode.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE... Georgetown broke its daily rainfall record with 6.52 inches. Here are today`s rainfall records. Sept 30 ACY 1.76 1964 PHL 2.41 2010 ILG 4.32 2010 TTN 1.50 1924 GED 3.15 1964 Updated this morning at 830 AM: September will be/is a top 10 warmest month through most of our forecast area, for the 3rd consecutive month! Also September will be/is enjoying a second consecutive top 5 warmest month in the period of record for PHL and ABE. We`ve run the actual numbers through the 29th, then added the forecast high/low for today. Philadelphia: The 73.5 degree average is 4.4 degrees above the monthly normal of 69.1. This will be the #5 warmest September on record for Philadelphia. Philadelphia September average temperature rankings 75.4 -1881 74.5 -2015 74.1 -1931 74.1 -1930 73.8 -2005 73.5 -2016 72.9 -2010 72.9 - 1921 Philly ranked #7 warmest July followed by a warmest ever August in the POR dating back to 1874. Atlantic City: 71.1 degree monthly average temperature, or nearly 4 degrees above the monthly normal of 67.2. This equates to an 8th warmest September in the period of record dating back to 1874. Atlantic City recorded a #7 warmest July and then a warmest ever August. 73.3 - 1961 72.8 - 1881 72.3 - 1931 and 1930 71.7 - 1921 71.6 - 2015 71.5 - 1933 71.3 - 2005 71.1 - 2016 #8 71.0 - 2010 70.6 - 2011 and 1906 Allentown: 69.1 degrees, or 5.2 degrees above the monthly normal of 63.9 and a 5th warmest September on record. Allentown ranked 8th warmest July and #2 warmest August in the period of record. 70.8 - 1961 70.3 - 1980 69.7 - 2015 69.4 - 1931 69.1 - 2016 68.7 - 2005 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ012>014-020>027. DE...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ452-453. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ454-455. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430- 431. && $$ Synopsis...Nierenberg Near Term...Drag 401 Short Term...Drag 401 Long Term...Nierenberg Aviation...Drag/Nierenberg 401 Marine...Drag/Nierenberg 401 Hydrology...401 Tides/Coastal Flooding...401 Climate...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.