Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 210600 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Storm Jose will be meandering well offshore through this weekend as it gradually weakens. High pressure centered to our north and west will slowly build closer to our area later this week and into the weekend. A weakening Hurricane Maria should parallel the East Coast offshore during early next week, while a cold front approaches from the west during Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Our region will remain positioned on the western fringe of Jose`s counterclockwise circulation and to the east of a weak surface ridge along the Appalachians. Fair skies overnight...any cloud cover, mainly e NJ. Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s area wide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
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Large-scale pattern for Thursday very similar to today. Tropical Storm Jose is expected to stall several hundred miles off the NJ coast while high pressure ridges southward down Appalachian spine. Northerly winds should be a few mph lower than today while temperatures are expected to trend upward by a degree or two owing to less cloud cover tomorrow. High temperatures in the mid 80s will be around 10 degrees above normal. North wind may gust 15-20 MPH during the afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Summary...A warm pattern through this time frame with a cold front not scheduled to arrive until during Wednesday. Tropical Storm Jose meanders well offshore for awhile, then monitoring Hurricane Maria as it should weaken northward as it parallels the East Coast offshore the first half of next week. Synoptic Overview...A strong ridge is forecast to extend from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward to the Great Lakes and toward northern New England through Friday, which then shifts eastward some over the weekend. This ridge should gradually weaken over the weekend into next week as a trough aloft shifts from the western states into the Plains and Midwest. The placement of this ridge and another one near Bermuda will result in very weak steering flow, therefore Tropical Storm Jose is forecast to meander around well east of our coast. Meanwhile, a weakness in the aforementioned ridges as well as the placement of Jose will have an affect on where Hurricane Maria goes as it turns northward. We used a blend of model guidance and continuity for Thursday night through Friday night, then used mostly the 12z WPC Guidance. For Thursday night and Friday...An upper-level ridge is forecast to build some more just to our west and north, which results in strung out surface high pressure. This surface high gradually builds south and eastward, however its progress will be slowed due to Tropical Storm Jose meandering offshore. Jose is forecast to be centered well east of our coast, however its circulation will maintain a northerly wind for our area. Jose currently has a large cloud canopy associated with it therefore as it lingers, at least the eastern parts of our area could see more cloudiness (mainly the high level variety). Despite the ridge aloft not all that far to our and west Friday, some western influence of Jose could keep our temperatures a little cooler. Overall though, most places are expected to get into the 80s Friday afternoon. The western extent of Jose`s moisture should continue to remain well east of our area. For Saturday and Sunday...A rather stuck weather pattern is in place with a ridge that slowly builds a bit to the east. Meanwhile, Jose should still be well east of our coast although it should be spinning down. There could be more clouds at times over the weekend especially closer to the coast given the proximity to the western part of Jose`s circulation. Depending on the steering currents, Jose could make a turn more toward our coast late Sunday. It appears though that any showers will continue to remain east of our region, therefore carried a dry forecast through the weekend. For Monday through Wednesday...This time frame could end up being more challenging as we watch two tropical systems. The first is Jose which is forecast to become post tropical as it spins down off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Some guidance wants to push its remnants into our area Monday, particularly as the system weakens quite a bit vertically allowing the low- level feature to be steered more westward. We are not certain this will happen at this time as our attention also turns southward to Hurricane Maria. For now, included some slight chance PoPs for much of the area Monday into Tuesday. The track of Maria looks to be partially determined by where Jose goes and if it weakens faster and if Jose is able to help produce a weakness in the ridging (one to the north and west and another near Bermuda). While the consensus overall is to keep Maria offshore of the East Coast, especially as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, influence from an incoming upper-level trough begins to occur. The timing of this trough will also be important. The presence of Hurricane Maria (which should weaken with a northward extent) looks to be a little close for comfort, therefore monitor the forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and our office for the latest. Pending no showers from dwindling Jose early next week, warm weather should prevail. A cold front does not look to approach until later Wednesday which will also potentially help to keep Maria off the coast. We followed WPC closely and did not go even warmer given more uncertainty with the details especially tied to the tropical activity.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Overnight...VFR clear. Light north to northwest wind. Vsby restriction possible toward dawn at KRDG in some fog? Thursday...VFR variably thin cirrus with few clouds developing in the afternoon near 5000 ft. North wind may gust 15 knot in the afternoon. Outlook... Thursday night and Friday...VFR. Northerly winds 10 knots or less during the day, then mostly light and variable at night. Saturday through Monday...VFR overall. Winds favoring between northwest to northeast generally 10 knots or less.
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&& .MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas continues for our coastal Atlantic waters through Friday. Seas, which are currently in the 6 ft range at our offshore buoys this evening, may not subside very much tonight or even Thursday. Still some large seas to our east. Outlook... Thursday night and Friday...Northerly winds should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, however seas will remain elevated as Tropical Storm Jose meanders well offshore. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through the day Friday. Saturday through Monday...A continued northerly wind through this time frame, however it is anticipated to be below advisory criteria. Seas may subside some as Jose weakens, however building swells from Hurricane Maria should arrive with time. Rip Currents... High risk cancelled for now but may need to reissue Thursday morning. Would like to give the seas an opportunity to subside 1 or 2 feet by 5am Thursday. Right now our internal guidance offers a moderate risk on Thursday but we may yet need to raise that to a high risk. Outlook: Friday and Saturday a moderate or high risk. Sunday through Wednesday are outlooked HIGH risk days with the greatest risk Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Leftover Jose swells combined with newly arriving southeast swells from Maria. Thats as far as we`re outlooking. So despite the still above normal temperatures and above normal water temperatures... i dont think its wise to test your luck. Follow the advice of local officials and in most areas... i wouldnt risk swimming in the still rough surf. Rescue crews...if called...might arrive too late at all the unguarded areas.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The potential for widesperad minor flooding for today has decreased along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey and on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay. While localized minor flooding is expected around the times of high tide, the flooding should not be widespread or impactful enough to warrant another Coastal Flood Advisory. We will continue to keep an eye on Jose and the system`s possible impact on tide level on Friday.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Gorse Near Term...Drag Short Term...Klein Long Term...Gorse Aviation...Drag/Gorse Marine...Drag/Gorse Tides/Coastal Flooding...Iovino

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