Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 300120 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 920 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TIED TO LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS WELL EAST OF OUR COAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW THOUGH DEVELOPED ALONG IT IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY ARE EXPECTED TO END DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IS ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE THOUGH WAS HALTED FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS WENT CALM. THIS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALIZED FOG ACROSS MAINLY OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE CLOUD COVER THINNED OUT QUICKER. A PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, ANY FOG SHOULD TEND TO BE LOCALIZED AND PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO OUR WEST TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FIELDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE. TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING TO GENERALLY THIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. A SHOWER LINGERING NEAR KMIV AND KACY ON SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND. SOME LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AT KRDG AND KABE, AND POSSIBLY KMIV LATER. THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CEILING DEVELOPS FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS. FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH LOWER VSBYS. MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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