Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 271958 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 358 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD LATER SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FOR MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, WHILE POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST FRIDAY MAY CROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE STACKED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THE LONGER NIGHTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, ALL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLIP OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY, INITIATING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ANY PATCHY FOG FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB AFTER SUNRISE. HIGHS IN RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF YOU LIKED THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY, YOU`LL LIKE SUNDAY TOO, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY OVERNIGHT, AND MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER OVERALL, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S THROUGH MORE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY OVERALL SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS; ALTHOUGH, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A MAINLY CLOUDY, BUT PLEASANTLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND PERHAPS AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 27/12Z RUN, BUT OUR OVERALL CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS STILL SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE. THERE WAS A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 27/00Z AND THE 27/12Z ECMWF, AND THE 12Z RUN NOW MORE RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION. PRIOR TO THIS THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT HUGGED THE COASTLINE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS ONLY DEVELOPS A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND TAKES IT OUT TO SEA, PRODUCING LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCOMING MODEL DATA TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS WITH THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD AND HOPE TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND OTHERS TO BUILD CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AS THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A CONTINUED ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN AND THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT CLOSER, AT LEAST WITH REGARDS TO A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDWEST STATES FRIDAY AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR REGION. WE DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR NEXT SATURDAY THEN, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH OUR AREA, AND WE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SKC TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY AT MIV AND RDG. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH NO IMPACT ON AVIATION. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR VSBYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A FEW SHOWERS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL SUSTAIN A LIGHT WIND FIELD THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. SEAS...ON THE OCEAN WILL BE AROUND 3 FT THROUGH SUNDAY, AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SOMETIME DURING TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY. THE TRACK AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS AND SEAS AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...MIKETTA SHORT TERM...MIKETTA LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...KLINE/MIKETTA MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA

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