Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 172003 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 303 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TO QUEBEC WILL MERGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS CONTROL HERE ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN GEORGIA SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA RESPONSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BEGIN CLEARING SOON. SPRINKLES IN THE POCONOS WESTWARD SHOULD SOON MIX WITH FLURRIES HIGH TERRAIN THERE. GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH SOON DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNSET. TONIGHT...THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES. THE NW PORTION COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES...I-80 NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A 100M 12 HR 500MB HFC (STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY LOWER LAKES) SWEEPING SEWD THRU THE POCONOS AROUND 06Z/18. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. W-NW OCCASIONALLY GUST 20 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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THURSDAY...WE ARE IN SERVICE BACKUP AND STERLING WILL BE WRITING THE FORECASTS STARTING AT ABOUT 8 AM. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER (STILL ABOVE NORMAL)...ABOUT 8-9F PER MODELED 925MB ABOUT 5C COOLER...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 MPH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS POCONOS WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES? OTHERWISE A MOSTLY SUNNY START IS EXPECTED BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME MIDDAY THEN CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONGTERM FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PATTERN FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DEEPER MORE ESTABLISHED TROUGHING COMMENCES OVER THE MID-WEST. AMPLE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH FROM SUNDAY ONWARD THOUGH THINGS, FOR THE MOST PART, APPEAR TO BE DISCONNECTED WITH CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD CHANGE. THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...DRYING TREND CONTINUES WITH ZONAL-ISH FLOW ALOFT FORMING BY FRIDAY AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...ONE LAST DAY, OR AT LEAST HALF DAY, OF TRANQUILITY ON SATURDAY BEFORE EAST COAST STORM NEARS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. DEPENDING ON THE QUICKNESS AND POSITION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY, HELPING TO DEVELOP GULF COAST SURFACE INFLECTION, DICTATES HOW FAST PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON SATURDAY. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND IN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES FOR THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE QPF EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY, AND THAT TOO LOOKS LIKE IT IS BECOMING MORE WASHED OUT. AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY THROW BACK SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TOO. AS FOR PTYPES, THE INTERIOR ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SNOW WHILE I-95 EASTWARD LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE LIQUID ON SATURDAY EVENING. A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH GOES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY COULD SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY - TUESDAY...COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE BY ON SUNDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STARTING TO SEE MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FUNNEL INTO THE PLAINS STATES LATER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORM THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR REGION RIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND WE NEED TO SEE HOW THE PRIOR SYSTEM, ON SUNDAY/MONDAY, DISRUPTS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, IF AT ALL, BEFORE WE HAVE ANY INKLING AS TO HOW TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS AOA 3500 FEET. GUSTY W-NW WIND NEAR 25 KT SUBSIDES SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNSET. BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE POCONOS IN SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW . CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. TONIGHT...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS IN A SNOW SHOWER. NW WINDS GUST 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT BECOMING BRIEFLY BKN CIGS MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN CLEARING LATE. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...SUB-VFR EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA POSTED. SCA VERIFICATION OCCURRING MOST OF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING THEN MAY PULSE UP DURING THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS 30-33 KT POSSIBLE BY MORNING. WINDS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING THEN MAY SUBSIDE A BIT DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE SCA ON DE BAY MAY EITHER BE EXTENDED OR PERMITTED TO DROP AT 6 PM THIS EVENING WITH A RE-ISSUANCE OF AN SCA LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY MORNING. BUOY 44009 FULL SERVICE RESTORATION PROBABLY DELAYED TIL FEBRUARY 2015. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD STILL BE IN THE 20 PLUS KNOT RANGE, THOUGH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER 303 NEAR TERM...DRAG 303 SHORT TERM...DRAG 303 LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 303 MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 303

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