Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 281925 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COOL FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A GORGEOUS NIGHT IN THE WORKS AS THE CUMULUS AROUND THE REGION DISSIPATES AND GIVES WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL DIE OFF ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO SET. LIGHT WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS MEANS WE WILL RADIATIONALLY COOL VERY EFFECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S AGAIN WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COASTAL LOCATIONS AND URBAN AREAS MIGHT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE. WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE AUGUST DAY FOR THE REGION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN A RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS SOME ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES, DESPITE RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER IT MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK ON SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH LIFT MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN INFLUENCES. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN COULD PLAY A ROLE. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS, HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS CLOSE BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END UP STALLING THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO LESS FLOW DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ESPECIALLY INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY TURN MORE TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST, AFFECTING KACY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR BUT SOME CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY, DISSIPATING LATE. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA

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