Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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414 FXUS61 KPHI 052330 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 630 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The next storm system will move northeast across the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. With high temperatures mainly in the 40s, most of the forecast area will see rain. However as colder air moves in across the north, the Pocono area will see a mix and change over to snow. Some light accumulation is possible. A large low pressure system moving slowly across the Great Lakes into New England will send a cold front, and more seasonal temperatures across the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure will be over the region throughout the night. However, high clouds will increase out ahead of a low pressure in the gulf states this evening into the Overnight. Lows will generally be in the 20s and 30s. Temperatures, dewpoints and sky cover were adjusted to match current metar obs and satellite data.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Tue, an area of low pres will eject out of the Glfmex and move newd twd the Mid-Atlc. This low will bring another round of precip to the area from sw to ne. Precip will begin durg the mrng s and hold off until late aftn n. Most locations will see all rain. However, nrn and wrn sections (especially the Poconos) cud see some mixed/wintry precip. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As the storm system continues across the region into Tuesday night, cold air will filter in across the Poconos bringing a likely change over to snow. Accumulation of around 2 inches is possible, mainly across the far northern counties. All precipitation will move east of the forecast area early Wednesday morning. Mild conditions will continue through much of Thursday, with colder air overspreading the region Thursday night. This will bring a more winter-like airmass with highs mainly in the 30s and lows in the lower to mid 20s expected. Medium range models differ at the end of the long term. The GFS suggests strong moisture return ahead of an approaching cold front. Will introduce slight chance pops late Sunday into Monday for now. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions are now expected for the remainder of the night and Tuesday morning. However, high clouds will increase. clouds will gradually lower throughout the day with celings and visibilities falling into the MVFR range as rain develops from southwest to northeast between 19 and 21z. Conditions in the IFR range are possible tomorrow night. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less gradually shifting from northwest to east overnight and during the day Tuesday. OUTLOOK... Conditions will rapidly improve to VFR Wednesday morning and continue predominantly VFR through Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... The prev issued SCA will remain in effect as issued for Tue. Prior to that, no marine flags are anticipated. Seas and wind will increase. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for ANZ431. && $$ Synopsis...Klein Near Term...Gaines/Nierenberg Short Term...Nierenberg Long Term...Runyan Aviation...AMC/Gaines/Nierenberg/Runyan Marine...Nierenberg/Runyan

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