Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 140740 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 340 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE W TODAY AND BRING A SUNNY SKY, DRY WX AND VERY PLEASANT CONDS TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. A NW TO N WIND IS ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THEREFORE, A CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT WIND AND COOL TEMPS IS ANTICIPATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PROGRESSES TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID 70S, EXCEPT FOR COOLER 60S IN THE POCONOS. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. SOME ERLY MRNG GROUND FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN A FEW LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY KRDG) THAT CAN REDUCE CONDS TO MVFR OR LOWER BUT THIS SHUD NOT BE LONG LASTING. A GENLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A N TO NW WIND WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNCHANGED. BUOY 44009 IS CURRENTLY OVER 5 FEET. ON LWR DEL BAY, CONDS ARE RIGHT AROUND SCA CRITERIA SO WILL LEAVE THAT PORTION UP FOR NOW AND REASSESS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG

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