Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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000
FXUS61 KPHI 131736
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
136 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Tennessee Valley shifts offshore on
Wednesday. Low pressure will pass north of the area later
Thursday. A more unsettled pattern arrives for the weekend with
a few chances for rain.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast remains on track as we head through this afternoon
with just some high clouds passing through. Those will dim the
sunshine at times today, but have generally thinned out as the
day has progressed, and should continue that trend. If anything,
temperatures are running slightly above forecast highs, with low
70s for many locations, making for our warmest day since at
least early November.
High pressure will continue drifting off the southeast coast,
with a light west/southwest flow continuing for today, and much
lighter winds than the past few days. A shortwave will pass
just to the south, which is the cause of our high clouds, but
will not have any additional impact. At our climate sites,
afternoon highs are around 15-20+ degrees above normal for mid-
March. With good heating on the mainland, a sea- breeze is
developing, though with flow prevailing out of the
west/southwest, it will not get too far inland. As a result,
expect cooler temperatures near the immediate coast, in the mid
50s to low 60s this afternoon.
For tonight, skies should clear out for most of the night. Winds
will go light as well and we should have favorable conditions to
radiate well. Temperatures will drop into the 40s region-wide as a
result.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control Thursday. Temps will be well
above normal for mid March with 70s across most of the region on
Thursday. Flow will be light aloft and at the surface should we
should have another pleasant day to end the mid-week. A weak
disturbance will pass by the region Thursday night, bringing a
chance for showers mainly across the northern half of the CWA.
Warm conditions will continue through Friday with forecast highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s once again, but chances for
rainfall will arrive for the latter half of the day as a cold
front sweeps through the region. Guidance has taken a step back
on total QPF amounts in the latest runs, but some locally
heavier amounts will be possible where a heavier shower sets up.
Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder either with limited
instability and modest lapse rates.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak ridging moves overhead Saturday, bringing a mostly dry day
before another cold front arrives to bring another chance for
rain on Sunday. Still a bit of model spread in terms of exact
timing, but latest deterministic guidance is leaning towards the
best precipitation chances Sunday to occur during the later
half of the day.
Cooler, but more seasonable air begins to filter in across the
region Monday with highs mainly in the 50s. Long-range guidance
continues to suggest a reinforcing cold front will arrive Monday
night, with a few showers possible ahead of the front on Monday,
mainly across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Can`t fully rule
out the chance for some flurries or snow showers during the day
Monday either. As a result of the front, temperatures fall down
below climo by Tuesday with highs in the 40s.
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.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR with scattered to broken high clouds moving
through. West/Southwest winds around 5 to 10 kt. A sea-breeze
looks to develop and make it past KACY around 20Z, turning
winds more south to perhaps southeast still around 5-10 kt.
High confidence in prevailing VFR. Moderate confidence in sea-
breeze timing and how far inland it gets (the main question
being if it gets to KMIV or not).
Tonight...VFR. West/southwest winds around 5 kt or less. High
confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday through Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Winds generally
5-10 knots and mainly out of the west through Thursday then
south Thursday night. Moderate confidence.
Friday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible with chances (45-
55%) for showers or possibly a thunderstorm. 10-15 knot winds start
southwesterly then become northwesterly Friday night behind a front.
Low confidence.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 knots during
the day become southwesterly 5-10 knots overnight. Moderate
confidence.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chances (20-30%) for light rain showers.
Southwest winds 10-15 knots. Low confidence.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected for all waters. South/southwest winds
around 5-10 kt through tonight. Seas on the ocean will be 1 to 2
feet.
Outlook...
No marine headlines anticipated through Sunday for most of the
period as winds are expected to be mainly 10-15 knots with seas
of 1-3 feet. Friday night into Saturday may be the exception as
some gusts around 20 knots are possible.
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.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding possible for areas along the Delaware
River and Delaware Bay beginning this evening and into Thursday
morning. Weakening offshore flow on Wednesday will allow water
levels to rebuild. Areas with the greatest chance to see impacts
from minor coastal flooding are under an advisory. Other
locations along the Delaware River/Bay and the coastal Atlantic
could also see spotty minor coastal flooding late Wednesday and
into Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
PAZ070-071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM EDT Thursday for
NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
Thursday for NJZ021.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
NJZ017-018.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM EDT Thursday for
DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
Thursday for DEZ002.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
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$$
SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...Dodd/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...Dodd/Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...Dodd/Hoeflich/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI STAFF