Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 020749 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 349 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BASE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING/ZONALISH FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THERE LOOKS TO BE A CAP RIGHT AROUND 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE AS PWATS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES JUST OUT OF REACH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLOSE TO IF NOT LOW-90S KIND OF DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER SEABREEZE INLAND PENETRATION AND POSSIBLY BAY/RIVER BREEZE CLOSE TO ILG/PHL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
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ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD AND OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE NORTH OF DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS ADEQUATE MODELED CAPE AND SHEAR. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW, SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND ALSO INTO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND ALSO POSSIBLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE MOSTLY USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND WINDS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TODAY BEFORE THEY PICK MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SEABREEZE AND BAY BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AFFECT ACY AND ILG FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING BUT DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, MAINLY AT THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THEN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS FROM LATE-DAY INTO THE NIGHT. TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET AS WINDS SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO SET IN. OUTLOOK... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE NEAR TERM...HEAVENER SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE

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