Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 010757 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 357 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WHILE IT MAY NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY ALL DAY LONG, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN, WHICH MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS SPC HAS EXPANDED THE GENERAL THUNDER RISK. WITH SUCH LIMITED PARAMETERS THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OT ROW BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION, WE MAY HAVE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE, LOCALES THAT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S, WITH THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
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TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CONTINUE, HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY, AND THEN START TO LIGHTEN UP AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MAKES IT WAY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS MAY INDICATE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY FALL OFF TO MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS WE KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE REST OF THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND MANY 12 HOUR PERIODS WHEN THERE WILL NOT BE ANY QPF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON THE TIMES OF MORE CERTAINTY. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST THIS WEEK. A UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AROUND THURSDAY AND THIS UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ARE TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HI CHC RANGE POPS MON AND LOW LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA MONDAY WHEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR. WEDNESDAY...THE ONE DAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. THU THRU SAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND MEANDERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. RATHER LOW CONFID FCST WITH THE DIFFERENT OPERATIONAL MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF LOWS AND HIGHER QPF AMTS. MOSTLY CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR THESE PERIODS ATTM.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. PERIODS OF MVFR WILL DROP TO IFR AT OR NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TANKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW FAST THAT OCCURS. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT TAFS AS THEY REFLECT THE BEST TIMING FOR THE LOWER CONDITIONS. AS THE RAIN LETS UP SUNDAY EVENING, AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL REMAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WED NIGHT THRU THU...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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A QUIET PERIOD ON THE AREA WATERS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES IT WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXCEED 5 FEET BETWEEN 03-06Z. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...THE LAST OF THE SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN NJ WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA

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