Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240411 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US. WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TOMORROW. THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL GUST TO 25 KT. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE...
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OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG ISSUANCE. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE. THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027. DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ431. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG FIRE WEATHER...

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