Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 301903 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 303 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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DRY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A NICE DAY IT WAS. TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL POOL IN THE CENTRAL PA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON MAY REACH THE POCONOS LATE THIS EVENING OR A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THEY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. OTHERWISE...THIS LOOKS TO ME TO BE ANOTHER VERY VERY NICE NIGHT FOR MID SUMMER! FAIR SKIES AND ALMOST NO WIND WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/30 NAM/GFS FCST ELEMENTS EXCEPT NAM SKYCOVER (INCREASING CLOUDS LATE...MAINLY MID AND HIGH).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTERACTION WITH INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND BETTER, NOT GREAT, INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR 2 BELOW NORMAL WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED OR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/30 NAM/GFS MOS. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON WHERE THE GREATEST CHC OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY THOUGH AM FAVORING I78 NORTHWARD. EVEN THE TIMING IS LESS THAN CERTAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME DYING SHOWERS IN E PA AND NNJ AT 8AM THEN NEWLY DEVELOPING SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DURING MID AFTN IN E PA.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH IT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THERE IS A SPLIT AMONGST THE NCEP VS. NON-NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY MORE SO THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. OFFSHORE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND PUSHES THE INVERTED TROUGH CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION, AS A WARM FRONT OF SORTS. NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF STRENGTH AND SPEED. AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE WAVES. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS A SLOWER APPROACH THAN THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS AND ALSO WITH THEIR QPF FIELDS. NOT TOO PRUDENT TO RELY ON THE QPF OUTPUT STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, BUT THE TREND MAY BE YOUR FRIEND...WETTER SOLUTION FOR US THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO WORK WITH THOUGH THE GFS LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE GEFS WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT HAVE ADDED MODERATE RAIN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT COULD BE TAPPED INTO. MONDAY - TUESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...VFR GENERALLY SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000FT. LIGHT WIND. TONIGHT...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER 04Z-10Z VCNTY KABE KRDG . LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR CALM WIND. THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. LOCAL SUB- VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY...MAINLY E PA AND NNJ. SOUTHWEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...SOME COULD BE HEAVY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBILITY, LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE.
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&& .MARINE...
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ANNOUNCEMENT: WE BEGAN A NEW EXPERIMENTAL MARINE OBSERVATION PROGRAM THAT ANY MARINER CAN EASILY USE TO COMMUNICATE WITH THE NWS HERE IN MOUNT HOLLY... PROVIDED YOU HAVE INTERNET ACCESS. THIS CAN HELP US FINE TUNE OUR FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST IS NOT REFLECTING THE REALITY AT YOUR MARINE LOCATION. FORECAST: WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT EACH AFTERNOON AND A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT LATE AT NIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS PERIOD.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER NEAR TERM...DRAG 303 SHORT TERM...DRAG 303 LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 303 MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 303

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