Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 311551 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1151 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW TOMORROW. THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1118 AM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TODAY (3 DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FCST DUE TO CLOUD COVER). NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE 930 AM FCST ATTM. TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM. BASICALLY CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NJ COAST DURING LATE AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AND MAY INCREASE POPS FURTHER FOR NJ COAST...FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY. FROST-FREEZE: THIS MORNINGS FROST MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED IN OUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FCST (BASICALLY A MODEL BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS TOO WARM BY 2-5 DEGREES). THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES FOR FROST FREEZE UNTIL NEXT SPRINGS GROWING SEASON BEGINS AS THIS FALLS GROWING SEASON HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT...PROBABLY INCREASING POPS AND WIND GUSTS A BIT IN THE 1230 PM ESTF FOR TONIGHT IN NJ. THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AND COMBINE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, WHILE THE INITIAL COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THIS LOW BEGINS DRIFTING NORTHWARD, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ALOFT AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SWING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD SWING ACROSS OUR AREA, GENERALLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN STORY ON THE MARINE AND MAYBE COASTAL REGION. CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS LIMITING THE WIND. FIRST, THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED EITHER TEMPORALLY OR GEOGRAPHICALLY. IF THE 12Z GFS IS IDENTICAL TO ITS 06Z PREDECESSOR FOR COASTAL FLOODING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL THEN ISSUE A CF ADVISORY AT 330 PM FOR THE SAT AFTN HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SNJ AND DE ATLC COASTS. OTRW...ITS LOOKING PERIODICALLY RAINY AND CHILLY AND AM LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 3-4 DEGREES IN THE 1230 PM FCST FOR SATURDAY PER NEW 12Z/31 GFS CONFIRMATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE BISECTING THE REGION. ALSO A MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING. INSTEAD, THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE TIGHTEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. ALSO, 6 HR PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MB, WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE 10MB PLUS PRESSURE RISES WELL OFF THE COAST THAT THE MODELS SHOW, IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL COMPONENT OF AN ISALLOBARIC WIND. HAVING SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER, BASED ON LOCAL HIGH WIND GUIDANCE WE STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND ADVISORY THREAT EVEN ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WILL JUST KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL. WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. STILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO BOTH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND INCREASING THICKNESSES. HOWEVER, INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WILL STALL WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AOA 3500 FT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE. CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN NJ. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT. SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV IN PERIODS OF RAIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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THIS AFTERNOON...NE WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO NEAR 23 KT IN THE NNJ WATERS AROUND 6 PM EDT WHILE GUSTS REMAIN UNDER 20 KT ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT...SCA N-NE WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP BUT THE HEADLINE IS SUPERSEDED BY TOMORROWS GALE WARNING. SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WATERS WITH VARIOUS STARTING TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL GALE BEGINS VICINITY 44065 (NNJ WATERS) NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND THEN SPREADS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING 5 KT EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SPOTTY GALE GUSTS DURING THE MORNING EVEN IN DELAWARE BAY. A GALE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THAT WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONVERTED TO A GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45 KT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE SNJ AND DELAWARE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE BUT VERY UNLIKELY TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-454-455. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ430. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON NEAR TERM...DRAG 1150 SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1150 LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1150 MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 1150 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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