Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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548 FXUS61 KPHI 211940 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 340 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. IT SHOULD PASS OFF CAPE HATTERAS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY OUT TO SEA. THE RAIN IS ABOUT A FAR NORTH AS IT IS GOING TO GET. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE RAIN INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A TOTAL OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY`S NORTHERN SUBURBS INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED TO FOLLOW. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXTENDED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH OUR REGION TOWARD MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION ON A MODERATE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THE WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP RISING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MAY 22. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL MOSTLY CONSIST OF FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL SAT MORNING WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S FAR NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S MOST OTHER AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S MOST AREAS. A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING TO THE WEST. POPS REMAIN ONLY IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE LATER PART OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE LATE JUNE THAN LATE MAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S...BUT THEN TUE-THU WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE. THE PERIOD WILL ALSO HAVE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ALMOST DAILY CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TEMPS CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAT WAVE (THREE 90+ MAX TEMP DAYS) ACROSS THE URBAN AREAS. RAINS IN THE PERIOD WILL BE SPOTTY AND LOCALLY HEAVY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CONDITIONS REMAINED VFR AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1900Z. CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES WERE BEGINNING TO DROP TO MVFR AT OUR REMAINING SIX TAF SITES. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN FOR A TIME INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR KMIV AND KACY WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST IN OUR REGION. GRADUAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. A VARIABLE WIND AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SPOTTY FOG WITH POOR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MON THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WE WILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD FOR TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE AND WAVE HEIGHTS MAY BUILD NEAR 5 FEET. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY FOR ALL OF OUR COASTAL WATERS AS A PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AT THAT TIME. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. OUTLOOK... SCA FLAG FRI INTO THE EVENING THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW END SCA FLAG FOR SEAS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW CONFID IN SCA CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, TODAY`S RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO KEEP FINE FUEL MOISTURE FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE GREEN-UP IS NOT COMPLETE, MOST NOTABLY THE PINE BARREN. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR FRIDAY.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS... SST`S ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST OFF THE COAST SSTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY ALMOST 3C. THIS IS NOT GOOD ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER TEMPS ARE WARMING --UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE). FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE! SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU. && .CLIMATE...
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**TOP 10 WARMEST MAY CONTINUES LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA** THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE FCSTS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...SO THE PROJECTIONS FROM YESTERDAY STILL LOOK ON TRACK. FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING AN AVG TEMP OF 68.7 TO 69.3 OR AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AT THE LEAST, 3RD WARMEST ON RECORD. WARMEST WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004. FOR ALLENTOWN...POR TO 1922. YESTERDAY WE WERE PROJECTING 65.0 OR 5.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. WARMEST WAS 67.2 IN 1991. POSTED BECAUSE ITS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST 90 IN PHILADELPHIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER. PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY JUNE 11.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>452. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ453>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430- 431.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA MARINE...IOVINO/O`HARA FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO RIP CURRENTS...DRAG CLIMATE...DRAG/O`HARA

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