Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240808 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 408 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR LATER SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DRY WX AND WARMER TEMPS THEN ON WED. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY EARLY, BUT THE WIND SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND STRONG LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WIND. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE. TEMPS SHOULD END UP NR NRML. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES ACRS THE MIDWEST AND APPROACHES FROM THE W. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES CLOSER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS INTO THE 30S. WITH LIGHT WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, IT MAY COME DOWN TO CLOUD COVER AS TO THE NEED FOR FROST ADVISORIES. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS FOR ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL FOR THE RAINS...SO THEY MAY ARRIVE MORE TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN LINGER INTO SAT MORNING ALSO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. TEMPERATES SAT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERY/UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED. WE HAVE NOT CHANGED TO POPS MUCH FROM EARLIER AND GONE WITH THE WPC FCST FOR THE MOST PART. HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS ARE FORESEEN FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S IN MOST AREAS. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY NW WIND, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTS SHOULD REACH THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THE WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURG THE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD AND THE PGRAD RELAXES. EXPECT THE WIND TO GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENLY 5 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT BUT THEN CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. OUTLOOK... FRI MORNING...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN FREQUENT SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE BAY. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT END TIME IN TACT, BUT THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. A BACK END SCA WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GLW COMES DOWN ON THE OCEAN. OUTLOOK... FRI...MOSTLY SUB-SCA. SHOWERS LATE. FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AFTERNOON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN. SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB- SCA. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027. DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA FIRE WEATHER...

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