-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 190104
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN OFF
THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM EARLIER HAVE
DIMINISHED/MOVED OFF THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. A FEW HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE LAST HOUR BACK ACROSS
SOUTH/CENTRAL PA AND ARE MOVING SE. WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN DECREASED IT BACK TO DRY BY DAWN
MOST AREAS. TEMPS WERE CHANGED LITTLE...AND ARE A MET/MAV COMBO.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND THE
DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASES. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE RIDGING START TO RE-ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST  WHICH HELPS TO KEEP OUR REGION DRY FOR THE MOST
PART. CONTINUE WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN DELMARVA WHERE SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
MAY STILL EXIST AND WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO POOL IN THE
UPPER-60S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A BASIC BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS HIGH
SHOULD THEN INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON ITS WESTERN SIDE BRINGS IN WARM AND HUMID AIR.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
EVERYDAY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE TIME
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN IN THE MID PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE
NORMAL RANGE....THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BEHIND IT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED CIGS. WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY WIND
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR EXCEPT IN MORNING FOG/HAZE OR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS TOWARDS THE SOUTH. WINDS
WILL START OFF EASTERLY AND THEN TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
TOMORROW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BECOME TIGHT FOR A PERIOD
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
BUT DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE OR LONGEVITY OF THE EVENT TO PUT UP
A FLAG. SEAS WILL CLIMB UPWARDS OF 4 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW AS
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE TRANQUIL LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK... NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AT PHILADELPHIA THIS HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH
8.28 INCHES OF RAIN AS OF 4 PM TUESDAY. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD
WAS BACK IN 1938 WHERE 10.06 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. AT WILMINGTON A
NEW RECORD FOR THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS RECORDED TODAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH AT 9.97 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD
RECORD OF 9.90 INCHES BACK IN 2003.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...HEAVENER
CLIMATE...GAINES