Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 240852 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 452 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ANOTHER PEACEFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL THE DRIVING FORCE KEEPING US DRY WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING MOISTURE BRING US BACK TO A TYPICAL LATE MAY DAY. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER- 40S TO LOW- 50S WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE SHOULD BE ABATED BY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING, LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO THE LEVELS EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER- 20S TO LOW-30S TODAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAD A BETTER THERMAL INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY SO USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MET/MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...RIGHT AROUND 80F FOR MOST SPOTS AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING A BIT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE FLOW TO BACK A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID-WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD AND WHILE THE BEST FORCING/LIFT STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. MORE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT. AGAIN A SIMPLE BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REACHING AROUND 16-17 DEG C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST 90 DEG F READING OF THE SEASON...ALTHO THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT DEWPTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO TEND TO DIVERT WEATHER SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS NWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND CANADA. THE FCST HAS NO PRECIP FOR MON AND JUST A SLGT CHANCE FAR N/W ON TUE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA ON WED AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THU. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON THOSE DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS N/W OF PHL. SOME AFTN INSTBY IS FCST ON BOTH DAYS. FOR NOW WE HAVE ONLY A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ALTHO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SITN TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO IS NOT VERY STRONG. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND INCREASE UPWARDS OF 10-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT BUT BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. && .MARINE... TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THOUGH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS TOP OFF CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS...MOSTLY THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WITH THE LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLDER WATERS AND UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST, GUSTS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT SW WINDS OVER THE COAST WATERS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NJ SHORE. && .RIP CURRENTS... POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE). FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE! PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU! && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC NEAR TERM...HEAVENER SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...AMC AVIATION...AMC/HEAVENER MARINE...AMC/HEAVENER RIP CURRENTS...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.