Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 252014 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 314 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD EAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWING ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT MOVED IN AFTER THE BRIEF SUNSHINE BREAK IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATING, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR TONIGHT. MOST PLACES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO PHILLY AND CENTRAL DELMARVA, SHOULD DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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TOMORROW IS LOOKING PROMISING THAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN NEARLY ALL LEVELS, AND AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE MET. TEMPERATURE WISE, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS HIGH BUILDING NE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND GIVEN MODEST THICKNESS INCREASES, STAYED CLOSER TO THE MAV.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS RIDGE MAINTAINS A SW FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FLOW THEN GRADUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY MON, THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE WED OR EARLY THU AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY PUSHES SOUTH. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUN, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MON AND TUE, THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC COAST FRI NIGHT WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT SAGS JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG IT, CONTINUING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TUE. COLDER AIR ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM COULD CHANGE SOME OF THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. THEN MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON THU.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS 4000 TO 6000 FT AGL WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. AT THAT TIME, EXPECTING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING (WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL LOCATIONS INCLUDING KACY) AND REMAIN WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AIRPORTS, VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD BE SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS ON THE MENTIONED FRONT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IF THIS LOW INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431- 450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...JOHNSON/MIKETTA MARINE...JOHNSON/MIKETTA

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