Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 271704 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 104 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WE HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE ESTF UPDATES AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE COVERAGE GOING. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CU AT UPWIND RAOB SITES AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB. THICKER CIRRUS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MADE ITS NORTHWESTERNMOST INTRUSION INTO SERN NJ AND SRN DELAWARE AND SHOULD EASE OFFSHORE REST OF AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN A BIT MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WITHIN EXPECTATIONS. WE MIGHT VERIFY A BIT TOO HIGH AND OPPOSITE ENDS OF FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP. SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND DELMARVA AREAS. TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. 18Z TAFS WILL BE VFR. AFTERNOON...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LIKELY VFR CU CIGS AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS AND POSSIBLY KABE AND KRDG. LESS AND LESS LIKELY FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE IS LOCATED. NEAR THE COAST THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CIRRUS CLOSE TO 35K. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS MAY BACK A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE NJ COAST AGAIN. BUT WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KACY GETTING AFFECTED, IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TODAY. TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS THAT FEATURE. OUTLOOK... FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE... NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5- 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2- 3 FT ARE FORECAST. OUTLOOK... FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA

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