Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 231939 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PIVOTED OFF THE COAST AND HAS TAKEN THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH WERE TO TOUR NORTH, WITH IT. WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT, WE`LL STILL HAVE SOME GRADIENT TO DEAL WITH ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US. WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TOMORROW. THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL GUST TO 25 KT. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY INTO TOMORROW EVENING. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. WHILE RH`S WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-40% RANGE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WINDS AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE ARE WELL WITHIN NEEDED CRITERIA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW. ALL THREE CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE THE LOWER DELMARVA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001- 007>010-012>027. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027. DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO FIRE WEATHER...KRUZDLO

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