Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 300455 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1255 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture will continue to track northward across our area tonight through Monday. A cold front will then cross the area Tuesday followed by high pressure for the middle of the week. A cold front, attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide across the Mid Atlantic region early next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northward through the region tonight. Some heavy rain across the region has already produced 1-1.5 inches in a very short time (we had 1.33 here at the office) and as a result, some localized flooding may have occurred. Flood statements have been issued and will remain in effect until the heavy rain threat has passed. Model guidance continues to show an area of heavy showers possible through the morning, mainly along and west of the I-95 corridor. Some fog may persist for awhile mostly along the coast of New Jersey given higher dew points advecting over the cooler ocean water. Earlier beach cams showed fog right on the coast in some areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... With the slower timing, it now appears that there will be more precip on Monday, than earlier fcst. Showers and some thunder now look to continue for a good portion of the day, especially for srn and ern areas. Nrn and wrn areas cud see precip end durg the aftn, with srn and ern sections most likely holding onto rain thru at least sunset. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The remaining showers from the back edge of the system affecting the area during the short term will be moving offshore Monday evening. Pops will then decrease below slight chc by dawn Tuesday. Except for some fog overnight...fair weather is expected. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s. High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and remain into Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected much of the time with above normal temperatures in most areas. Highs both days will be in the low/mid 80s in most areas with some 70s for highs along the shore and the higher elevations well to the north. A few scattered showers may creep into the Delmarva areas later Wed as the edge of moisture associated with what will be left of Tropical Depression Bonnie will be moving south/east of the area. The pops across srn Delaware at these times will only be 20-25 pct at most. The tropical moisture and an advancing h5 trough will be setting up across our area towards the end of next week. This will bring some unsettled conditions with typical late spring/early summer showers/tstms to the area. Pops will be mostly in the chc range for now with details yet to be specific with regards to timing and locations. Temperatures during this period will be close to normal. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Tonight...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR through 06z from south to north. This timing may be determined on the intensity of the showers. The visibility will lower to MVFR and IFR at times especially during heavier showers. Some thunder is possible overnight, however the areal coverage looks low and therefore it was not included in the TAFs. Southerly winds mainly less than 10 knots, becoming light and variable at some terminals. Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning along with times of heavy showers and some thunder, then the main area of showers/thunder shift toward the coast in the afternoon. The lower conditions last the longest at KACY to KMIV, with possible improvement in the afternoon to VFR mostly at KABE and KRDG. South to southwest winds mostly in the 5-10 knot range. OUTLOOK... Monday night...Showers end from w to E, VFR conditions return. Patchy fog possible late however. Tue-Wed night...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Wed. Thu- Fri...Mostly vfr but lower conditions psbl in sct showers/tstms. && .MARINE... The earlier visible satellite images along with beach cams indicate that fog is persistent over the NJ coastal waters especially. This looks to continue for awhile given much higher dew points advecting northward over the cooler waters, therefore a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through tonight for the NJ coastal water zones. The winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Monday. Seas are expected to build some and could reach near 5 feet on the southern waters Monday. Due to confidence being lower, wind below criteria and WaveWatch possibly being overdone, will not issue a Small Craft Advisory at this time. OUTLOOK... Sub-sca conditions expected most of the period. Seas on the ocean may reach close to 5 ft Thu night...but low confid in this attm. Sct tstms with higher winds/seas possible Fri. && .HYDROLOGY... Locally heavy rain is expected through the night and Monday which may result in localized flooding. This is due to an influx of tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Bonnie, which increases the PWATs to near 2 inches. Depending on where the heavier showers and some t-storms set up, isolated locations may possibly see 3 inches of rain. The area of heaviest rain may set up near and just west of I-95. While the threat of localized flooding is there, the areal extent is more uncertain and therefore we held off on a flash flood watch at this time. && .CLIMATE... Daily record rainfalls that have a chance of exceedance, if heavy showers can persist for 1 to 2 hours. Note, splitting amounts between two days lowers the chance of a single day record event occurrence. There is a good chance several long term climate sites will increase to a top 10 ranking for the month of May in our CWA. PHL ACY AND ILG only need an inch of rain these last 3 days of the month to rank as a top 10 wettest month of May. Monday ACY 3.07 1984 por 1874 PHL 1.74 1908 por 1872 ILG 1.10 1983 por 1894 ABE 1.68 1968 por 1922 TTN 1.62 1912 por 1865 GED 2.04 1984 por 1948 RDG 2.92 1904 por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record daily rainfall) MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ450>453.
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