Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 262041 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 341 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD RUN COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOWCOVER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT NOT A LOT COLDER DUE TO THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA BY SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10`S FOR MOST WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. LAV GUIDANCE USED FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER INITIAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING. AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN. SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT TIMES. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY. POR / SITE / FEB 27 FEB 28 1872 / KPHL / 6 1900 9 1934 1874 / KACY / 7 1934* 2 1934 1894 / KILG / 5 1934 -5 1934 1922 / KABE / -2 1963 -10 1934 1869 / KRDG / 4 1934* 3 1934 1865 / KTTN / 6 1934 1 1934 1948 / KGED / 10 1963 8 1950 1901 / KMPO / -9 1993 -15 1907 KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980. NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS. NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN. THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE. WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS. POR / SITE / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK 1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015) 1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7 (1905) 1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936) 1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963) PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL. THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015 TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES. POR / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F) 1872 / KPHL / 25.5 / 35.7 / -10.2 / 30.9 1874 / KACY / 24.5 / 35.3 / -10.8 / 30.2 1894 / KILG / 24.5 / 35.1 / -10.6 / 30.3 1922 / KABE / 18.9 / 30.7 / -11.8 / 25.9 IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015. IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015. ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873. ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE IN 1874. WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA CLIMATE...DRAG

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