Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 211912 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 312 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure located over our region this afternoon will slide to the east and out to sea on Sunday and Monday. A cold front is forecast to approach from the west on Tuesday and it should pass through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland and Delaware on Tuesday night. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front and it should be located over or near New England and southeastern Canada on Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure is anticipated to follow for Friday and Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure over the region will slowly move offshore tonight. Another clear night is in store. With clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling will occur again tonight. This means that the MET and MAV are likely a little warm with the temperatures. Higher dewpoints than last night will limit the radiational cooling with lows in the 40`s and low 50`s. The Pine Barrens and NW NJ will be the coldest spots with temperatures that could be even a bit colder than shown on the point and click.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Winds will still be light but start to come from the southeast on the backside of the high. This will lead to a further increase of moisture and warm air into the region. The overall moisture transport looks slow, so we should be able to get one more mostly sunny day tomorrow. Temperatures will warm fairly rapidly as well into the mid and upper 70`s, perhaps a degree or two cooler than today based on modeled 925 mb temperatures.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The surface high will be well off the coast on Sunday night and Monday. The return flow on the back side of the high is expected to bring increasing moisture into our region. As a result, we continue to anticipate low clouds and patchy fog for late Sunday night into Monday morning. The axis of the mid level ridge is forecast to be located along the east coast on Sunday evening. A mid level low is expected to be centered over Missouri at that time. As the ridge moves out to sea, a re-enforcing long wave trough should begin to drop over the Mississippi River Valley. The mid level low is anticipated to fill with its remnants being drawn up and over our region late on Monday night. The long wave trough is forecast to influence the eastern states during the mid week period before it lifts to the northeast. The surface cold front is expected to extend from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast on Sunday night. The feature should already be tapping into gulf moisture at that time. As the remnants of the mid level low pass overhead and as the cold front approaches, there will be an increasing chance of showers in our region from Monday night into Tuesday. Enhanced lift from late Monday night into Tuesday will likely result in period of moderate to heavy rain along with a chance of thunder. It appears as though rainfall totals will favor the 0.25 to 1.00 inch range. The cyclonic flow aloft along with the slowly departing cold front and surface low pressure over or near New England should keep clouds and a low or slight chance of showers in our region during the mid week period. High pressure is expected to bring some clearing for Friday and Saturday. Daytime temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above normal on Monday and Tuesday. Readings are forecast to drop back to more typical levels for late October during the period from Wednesday through Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR throughout the TAF period. Winds are generally expected to be under 10 knots with some variability into tomorrow before shifting to the southeast. Some low clouds may move onshore late in the day for KACY and KMIV but this will likely wait till after the TAF period before forming a ceiling. OUTLOOK... Sunday night and Monday...Low clouds and fog are possible from late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise...mainly VFR. Monday night through Tuesday night...Conditions lowering to MVFR and IFR in showers. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rain are possible on Tuesday, along with a south wind gusting around 25 or 30 knots. Wednesday...Conditions improving to VFR. Wednesday night and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Wave heights look to be in a fairly stable state of around two feet through tomorrow. Winds will also be under 10 knots, variable into Sunday then from the southeast later in the day. OUTLOOK... Sunday night through Monday night...No marine headlines are anticipated. Tuesday and Tuesday evening...A Small Craft Advisory may be need for southerly wind gusts near 30 knots. Waves on our ocean waters may build to 7 to 10 feet. Late Tuesday night through Thursday...A Small Craft Advisory may be needed on our ocean waters for wave heights of 5 to 6 feet, even as the wind becomes west to northwest around 10 to 20 knots.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... 44091 buoy drifted away from its mooring and was recovered. Its return to service date is unknown. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Gaines Short Term...Gaines Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Gaines/Iovino Marine...Gaines/Iovino Equipment...Staff

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