Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 170426 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1126 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift off the coast tonight. Low pressure is forecast to pass across the Great Lakes on Tuesday with a secondary low developing near Long Island on Tuesday night. The system is anticipated to move out to sea on Wednesday. High pressure should follow for Wednesday night through Thursday night. Low pressure is forecast to move across the Ohio River Valley and the eastern Great Lakes on Friday with a secondary low developing off the Middle Atlantic coast on Friday night. High pressure is expected to build into our region from the north for the weekend. A broad area of low pressure is anticipated to approach from the southwest on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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1126 PM ESTF: Products and grids updated. Raised temps overnight. Pcpn is spotty at best and still no Icing groups at any metar sites in our area through 11 PM, which means, very little icing so far. We have messaged FB for any reports. The 00z/17 GFS/NAM keep primary measurable prior to 15z down on the Delmarva and s NJ. That probably means little in the way of overnight icing and the question thereafter, where to keep the advy on Tuesday. Wet bulbs still say icing possible in portions of the forecast area but as of this writing...am thinking only Monroe County Sussex County high terrain will have any substantive icing once rain begins in earnest between 15z-17z. Its a close call on all of this, so no changes attm on advy configuration. Light winds overnight. Tuesday...rain overspreads the entire area 15z-18z then may quit at times Delmarva late day or evening. A cold rain. Light wind trending northeast north of I-78 as low pressure forms in central NJ late in the day while winds are southeast over the Delmarva trending south late in the day with max temps there late in the day. Icing possible aoa 1000 feet, mainly vcnty KMPO and High Point NJ and there, its mainly trees/wires. pavement temps there may be just above 32F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Cold rain and drizzle north of I-78 while s of I78... periods of rain and drizzle diminish, especially Delmarva where there may be 9 hours of rainfree weather. Still a small risk of glazing vcnty kmpo and High Point NJ.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Two precipitation systems are expected to affect eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey during the period from Wednesday through Monday. However, temperatures should remain above normal and the precipitation is expected to fall in the form of rain. A mid level short wave trough that was located over Manitoba, North Dakota and vicinity is forecast to progress to the southeast and it should pass off the Middle Atlantic coast on Wednesday afternoon. At the surface, a warm front should be up into the upper Delmarva and southern New Jersey on Tuesday evening with a cold front moving through western Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Low pressure is expected to develop around Long Island on Tuesday night before racing out to sea. We are anticipating a fair amount of lingering low level moisture on Tuesday night and Wednesday even as the mid levels dry in the wake of Tuesday evening`s short wave. We will continue to mention rain and rain showers during that period along with areas of fog for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The expected temperature profiles continue to suggest all liquid precipitation. Mid level ridging is expected over the eastern states for Wednesday night through Thursday night. Another short wave trough is forecast to lift over the northeastern states around Friday night with the ridge anticipated to re-establish itself over the east for the weekend. Surface high pressure is forecast to build across our region from west to east during the period from Wednesday night into Thursday night. The high will likely bring dry weather conditions. Surface low pressure is expected to move up the Ohio River Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes on Friday before weakening. A secondary low is forecast to develop off the Middle Atlantic coast on Friday night before moving quickly out to sea. As the main energy shifts from the Great Lakes to the coast, we are anticipating another rain event for our region beginning around midday on Friday and continuing through Friday night. Some rain may linger into Saturday, especially in the northern part of our region. Surface high pressure is forecast to build into our area from the north during the weekend. A broad closed low should be located over the Ozarks and vicinity late on Sunday and it is forecast to move toward the Ohio River Valley on Monday. Rain associated with the system may begin to overrun the surface high and it could spread into parts of our region as early as Sunday afternoon. Rain is anticipated for both Sunday night and Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Overnight...Cigs 2000-6000 ft...mainly in the 2000-3000 ft range. light south wind. Vsby will decrease to mvfr in showery rains toward 11z vcnty KILG. Tuesday...MVFR Cigs lower to IFR during midday with vsby decreasing to MVFR in periods of rain. light wind...trending northeast or north KABE/KRDG while light south to southeast elsewhere. Tuesday night...Widespread IFR conditions expected with rain diminishing to drizzle and eventually fog as cigs lower through the night. Light wind trending north to west entire area overnight. OUTLOOK... Wednesday morning...IFR and MVFR conditions are expected with fog and rain. Wednesday afternoon...Conditions are expected to improve to VFR. Wednesday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR. Friday afternoon...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain. Friday night...MVFR and IFR conditions in rain and fog. Saturday...MVFR and IFR conditions in morning fog and rain, improving to VFR for the afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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No headlines through Tuesday night. Wave heights will still be around a foot or so with winds under 10 knots, fairly quiet on the waters. OUTLOOK... Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines are anticipated.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ062. Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ054-055. Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ060-061. NJ...Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ007-008. Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ001. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Drag/Gaines/Robertson 1126 Short Term...Drag/Gaines 1126 Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Drag/Gaines/Iovino/Robertson 1126 Marine...Drag/Gaines/Iovino 1126

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