Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 180128 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 928 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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WE HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE DIURNAL CU/SC HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE CLR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DROPPING STEADILY...AND SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WE KEPT IN THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE USUALLY FOGGY SPOTS (LEHIGH VALLEY...SRN POCONOS AND PINE BARRENS).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION. ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS. && .MARINE...
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SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...MIKETTA SHORT TERM...MIKETTA LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA RIP CURRENTS...

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