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000
FXUS61 KPHI 250802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN MAINE SUNDAY. IT THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... SUMMERLIKE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WHILE
SLOWLY DEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH/EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH/WEST
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW
60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FAR NORTH/EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20
MPH EARLY. LOW TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
PROBABLY NO THREAT OF ANY FROST FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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500MB: AN UNUSUALLY COLD STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD FROM
MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE STRONG VERY WARM RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD OCCURS
AS THE SUMMER RIDGE REPLACES THIS CURRENTLY OUT OF SEASON COLD DAMP
BLUSTERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FROST: SMALL CHANCE FOR A TOUCH OF FROST IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.  HWO.

HEAT: GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE BEGINNING WED OR THU INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT YET IN HWO. NEED A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY
FOR THIS DAY 5-7 OR DAY 6-8 POTENTIAL HOT SPELL.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASED ON 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
AND THEN TUESDAY IS 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS. TUE NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 0543Z/25 NCEP EXTENDED GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS MODIFIED UPWARD ON THE DAYTIME TEMPS WHERE THE GFS MEXMOS
OR 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN HPC. ALL THIS DATA IS
CHECKED AGAINST ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS AND THEIR 2M TEMPS.

SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY AND BLUSTERY. NW GUSTS 25-30 MPH.  CLEAR
AND CHILLY AT NIGHT. LOW PROB ISOLATED FROST POCONOS. DESPITE CLIMO
IMPACT ON THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MIGHT FORECASTING THE NIGHTTIME TEMPS
A TAD ON THE MILD SIDE MONDAY MORNING...IT JUST APPEARS THE NIGHT IS
TOO SHORT AFTER A DAYTIME MAX IN THE 60S TO PERMIT FROST.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. W-NW G TO 15 MPH. 35 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNALS
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SMALL WARM FRONTAL SHOWER RISK BUT OVERALL
I THINK ACCEPTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDS.
S-SW G 15 TUESDAY AND WSW ON WED.

TEMPS THU AND FRI COULD RUN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTG IN THE 330 AM KPHI FCST PACKAGE. IT IS DAY 6-7 BUT IT LOOKS HOT
IN THE 90-93F RANGE. FOR NOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE AROUND 90F FCST.


THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. SW G 15.  16-17C AT 850MB

FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. FOR NOW THE 12Z/24 ECMWF IDEA
OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS SQUASHED BY ITS 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC
RUN AND THE GEFS ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A BACKDOOR. SW G 15 MPH.
16-17C AT 850MB.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ABOUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS NORTH/EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS (AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS)...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAINS VFR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY
AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 G25
EARLY...THEN 15 TO 25 G30 KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SKIES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE MOSTLY CLR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.

MONDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS G NEAR 15 KT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCE SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.
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&&

.MARINE...
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WE WILL PUT UP THE GALE AT THE NORTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES WITH THE
400 AM CWF ISSUANCE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N TODAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED
BACK TO SCA FLAG OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
LEFTOVER SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY (AFTER THE GALE SUBSIDES) THEN
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN SCA LATE WED BUT ITS A SMALL CHANCE
ATTM AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT DUE TO WAA. THAT 5 FEET LATE WED FCST
MAY ALSO BE TOO HIGH BY A FOOT OR SO.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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THE LOW WATER ADVISORY ACROSS DEL BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 800 AM.
THE DEPARTURES OVERNIGHT HAVE GONE DOWN TO -1.5 TO -2.5 BELOW NORMAL
AND THEY HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH AS THE LOW TIDE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE
BAY. IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE DEPARTURES WILL CARRY UP INTO THE DEL
RIVER...AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
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&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
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THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS AS WINDS AND SWELLS DIMINISH.

SSTS ALONG THE COAST ARE QUITE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY NJ WHERE ITS
STILL CHILLY WATERS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY.
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&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 401
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 401
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 401
LONG TERM...DRAG 401
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 401
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 401
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...401
RIP CURRENTS...401