Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 201409 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1009 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical storm Jose will move slowly north and northeastward well offshore through tonight. High pressure will slowly build eastward tomorrow into the region and become firmly established for the remainder of the week into early next week. Jose will continue to meander well offshore through the weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The center of Tropical Storm Jose was located about 250 miles east of Atlantic City at 10 AM this morning. This system will drift slowly to the northeast through the day. Northerly winds around the circulation of Jose will generally be in the 10 to 15 mph range with gusts 20 to 25 mph (except lower across far southern and western locations in the CWA). Updates with the 930 AM ESTF were focused on cloud cover and PoPs. Visible satellite imagery shows the western edge of the dense cloud cover from Jose from ACY-TTN-FWN with most locations to the west experiencing sunshine. There was a separate area of thicker mid-level clouds moving southward into eastern Maryland. The HRRR continues to indicate the development of a weak convergence zone near the Delaware Valley mid to late afternoon. Opted to keep PoPs at 10 percent and add isolated sprinkles in lieu of showers. Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be mostly in the lower and middle 80s which is about 8 to 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Jose is expected to continue drifting to the northeast for tonight. The sky over our region is forecast to become partly cloudy. The north to northwest wind is anticipated to diminish to 5 MPH or less at most locations. Low temperatures should favor the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday through Friday night: Jose will continue an eastward/northeastward movement away from our region. Mid-level heights will be on the increase to our north and west with high pressure becoming established over the region. Winds will ease on Thursday as Jose continues to move away. Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite warm for mid-September would would yield highs in the 80`s for a good portion of the region after starting warm in the 60`s. MAV/MET in better alignment with this now. Saturday through Tuesday: Ensemble guidance has had a reverse trend the last couple of cycles with more members from the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian suites showing a much weaker Jose making a loop back to the southwest by early next week. Any southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid- level ridging developing to our west and north throughout the remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will continue to go with the mainstream idea that Jose will continue to be located east enough of the region not to have any major impacts for our region. Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region through early next weekend with a strong - PNA pattern of almost four standard deviations in this timeframe. A similar theme of anomalous warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble guidance may still be playing catch up to the pattern that is expected to occur. Highs were raised a couple of degrees for the weekend from the ensemble mean with a few locations making a run close to 90 on Sunday. Stayed closer to the mean of the ensemble guidance for early next week given the increased uncertainty. If Jose were to trend back to the southwest, more clouds along with somewhat cooler temperatures than currently forecasted would occur. Uncertainty also revolves around the interaction of Jose with Hurricane Maria and any potential impacts to our area by the early to middle part of next week. Stay tuned to the latest advisories and forecasts from the National Hurricane forecast for more information on Jose and Maria. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR today. However, may see a brief period of MVFR CIGs late this morning at ACY. A northerly wind around 10 to 15 knots today is expected to diminish to 8 knots or less for tonight. The wind direction may begin to back toward the northwest at that time. Outlook... Thursday and Thursday night: VFR. North to northwest winds 7-15 knots. Patchy fog if winds go light enough early Thursday morning for KRDG, KABE and KMIV. Friday through Sunday: VFR. Winds generally 10 knots or less.
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&& .MARINE...
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A SCA is in effect for the coastal Atlantic waters. A north to northwest wind on our ocean waters 15-25 knots will diminish to 10-15 knots this afternoon, then around 10 knots for tonight. However, wave heights will remain high due to Tropical Storm Jose. Waves on our ocean waters are 7-10 feet this morning and is expected to subside to 5 to 7 feet this afternoon and to 4 to 6 feet tonight. We will keep the SCA for the lower bay until 4 PM, mainly for wind gusts and waves this morning and simply for waves this afternoon. It should take until late afternoon for the wave heights near the mouth of Delaware Bay to drop below 5 feet. Outlook... Seas will remain above five feet through the entire outlook period given the proximity of Jose on the coastal waters. Rip Currents... Tropical Storm Jose will continue to push swells toward the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey today. As a result, there remains a high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for today. The risk may drop to moderate for Thursday-Friday with waves subsiding a bit and winds becoming light. However, long- period swells from Hurricane Maria may arrive this weekend, which could raise the risk to high again.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies have come down about 1/2 to 3/4 ft (anomalies are currently 1.25-1.75 ft above astronomical) since peaking last night, which is enough to prevent another round of moderate coastal flooding from occurring across the area with the ongoing high tide cycle this morning. Accordingly, the Coastal Flood Warning for Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland Counties in New Jersey and for Sussex and Kent Counties in Delaware have been cancelled and replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory. The Coastal Flood Advisory also includes the central NJ coastline and Raritan Bay as well as coastal areas along the Delaware Bay. The Coastal Flood Advisory was also extended into tonight for the abovementioned areas to cover the subsequent high tide cycle this evening. We do not anticipate any tidal flooding with today or tonight`s high tide along the Delaware River upstream from the Commodore Barry Bridge area or on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay. The potential for minor tidal flooding around the times of high tide will likely linger into tonight and Thursday, and perhaps even into Friday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ016. DE...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ431.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Gaines Near Term...Iovino/Klein Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Gaines/Iovino/Klein Marine...Gaines/Iovino/Klein Tides/Coastal Flooding...Klein

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