Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 141953 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 353 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE PARKED WELL OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY SRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND INCREASINGLY HUMID OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN AREAS AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND PHILLY METRO AREAS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE RAIN-FREE...BUT SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN...MOSTLY N/W.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY. IT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS. WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR TSTMS PRESENTLY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TAPPING THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BRINGING SOME NEAR-SVR GUSTS. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TUE WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AREAS ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS GET CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT EVEN THESE VALUES WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HUGE HYDRO CONCERNS. LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE VERY WARM AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WILL DROP 20-25 DEGREES AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY EARLY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S UP NORTH AND IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS TO SUNRISE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORE. FREEZE CONCERNS...WITH THE STRONG POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION, EXPECT MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA REGION AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORE, TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL IN UNDERESTIMATING OVERNIGHT MIXING WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS, EVEN UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FROM NORTHERN DELMARVA UP TO BERKS, BUCKS, AND MERCER COUNTIES. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE WATCH ARE LIKELY TO SEE A FREEZE AS WELL, HOWEVER, IT IS STILL EARLIER THAN THE MEDIAN LAST FREEZE DATE, SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WIND CONCERNS...STILL A CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED GUST TO 40 OR 45 MPH. HOWEVER, WITH THE MODELS STILL TRENDING TOWARDS A LATE AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF, AS THE PEAK PRESSURE RISES WILL BE BEFORE 03Z. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT REMAINS COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MEANING MANY LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOWER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH, AND POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STILL LOTS OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE OPEN WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE OF A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AS IT DOES SO. THE QUESTION IS IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM OR THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW INTENSIFIES, IT WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. GUSTY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY LOWER CIGS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT (FOR THE MOST PART). A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...SO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHICH WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR OR IFR IS EXPECTED. GUSTY SRLY/SERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO SE TUE MORNING AND THEN SHIFT WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL OCCUR THRU THE PERIOD. LLWS WAS ADDED TO THE FCST FOR TUE MORNING AS A DECENT 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE...BUT NOT CONFID ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WE INTEND TO KEEP THE MARINE FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENTLY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 34 KT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. SEAS ARE 4 FT AT 44009...BUT SILL SHORTLY BUILD CLOSER TO 5-6 FT INTO THE EVENING. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...BUT WE WILL JUST KEEP THE GALE WATCH FOR NOW AND GIVE THE NEXT CREW ANOTHER LOOK AT IT. FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING...THEN SCT SHOWERS TONIGHT. SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ON TUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-071-101>104-106. NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NJZ015>019-021. DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DEZ001. MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MDZ008-012. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...JOHNSON/O`HARA MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA

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