Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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000
FXUS61 KPHI 151731
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
131 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the region today, then weak high
pressure builds in tonight and Saturday. The next cold front
crosses our area Sunday. Yet another cold front may pass
through Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of
next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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While another mild to warm afternoon is in progress, the first
in a series of cold fronts clears our area this evening which
will start our stepping down of our stretch of warmth.
Despite a more zonal flow aloft, strong shortwave energy is
supporting surface low pressure moving across southeastern New
England through early this evening. An associated cold front will
continue to works its way southeastward across our area. Some
additional shortwave energy later this afternoon and early this
evening may promote a bit more shower activity mainly across far
southern New Jersey and Delmarva. The coverage overall is looking
less and therefore PoPs were lowered some more. The instability is
rather limited and therefore continued to not include a thunder
mention. Once any showers end this evening, at least some clearing
should work in from the northwest although the cold air advection
may maintain an area of stratocumulus for at least portions of the
region. Some cloud cover may also be enhanced some overnight as
stronger, but channelized vorticity, slides across the region. The
cold air advection and decent mixing should carry some wind for a
while this evening, although a diminishing trend is expected as the
overall mixing does shrink. It will turn noticeably colder tonight
as temperatures drop into the 30s to low 40s by daybreak Saturday.
As we go through Saturday, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to
quickly slide across our area in the morning with more of a zonal
flow aloft continuing. This will result in a cooler air mass,
however given the zonal flow the temperatures will still be several
degrees above average. High temperatures are forecast to get well
into the 50s to low 60s during the afternoon (coolest in the
Poconos). Any lingering cloud cover should be the high level
variety, however overall a good amount of sunshine should occur.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure moves offshore on Saturday Night with a cold
front approaching as an area of low pressure skates by to the
north. This front will not have much moisture to work with, and
only have a 15-20% chance of showers north of I-78 for Sunday
morning as the front moves through. Not expecting much of an
impact overall and for most of the region, this will be a dry
frontal passage.
The cold air will accompany the secondary front passing on Monday,
with temperatures on Sunday expected to be mild yet again. Looking
at another day in the upper 50s/low 60s with some mid 60s within the
Delmarva peninsula. Cooler, more seasonable air begins to filter in
on Sunday night with lows mainly in the 30s with upper 20s in the
Poconos and lower 40s in southern Delmarva.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Relatively benign in the long term overall with below normal
temperatures for most of next week with a few weak systems
potentially moving through.
A stretch of below-normal temperatures looks to begin on Monday.
Long-range guidance continues to suggest a reinforcing cold front
arriving on Monday, with a few showers possible ahead of the front
on Monday, mainly across the Poconos, northern Lehigh Valley, and
far northern New Jersey. Can`t fully rule out the chance for some
flurries or snow showers during the day Monday either, most likely
in the southern Poconos. As a result of the front, a period of below
normal temperatures is expected Monday through Wednesday, with
highs for the most part in the 40s with southern areas getting
into the low 50s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s/low
30s. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day overall as 850 mb
temperatures are -10C, translating to surface temperatures in
the low to mid 40s.
Brisk northwest flow in the wake of the secondary front could result
in some breezy days through the middle of the week, with some of the
guidance showing gusts in the 20-30 MPH range during the day. The
upper level trough is slow to pull away with a few shortwaves likely
moving through within the northwest flow. This could result in some
rain/snow showers at times for the Poconos/northwest NJ, but nothing
impactful overall.
Temperatures return to more seasonal levels towards the end of next
week as more zonal flow takes over.
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.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of this afternoon...VFR overall with a few showers around. If
any restrictions were to occur they will be brief and limited.
Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Moderate
confidence.
Tonight...VFR with some clearing of the clouds from the northwest.
Some showers possible this evening mainly south and east of ILG.
North-northwest winds diminishing to 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.
Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds near 10 knots, becoming
southwest in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday Night...VFR. South/southwesterly winds 5-10 kt. Moderate
confidence.
Sunday through Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15%) of
showers near KABE, but otherwise dry for most. West/northwest winds
around 10-15 kt, gusting 20-25 during the day decreasing to 5-10 kt
at night. Low confidence.
Monday through Tuesday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MARINE...
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The conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria (25 knots/5 feet) through Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated. West/southwest winds 10-15
kt gusting up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. North/northwest
winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...SCA conditions likely (70%) as
west/northwest winds will increase to around 20 kt, with gusts 25-30
kt possible. Seas 2 to 4 feet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Gorse
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Gorse/Hoeflich
MARINE...Gorse/Hoeflich