Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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859 FXUS61 KPHI 130915 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 415 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND IT SHOULD PASS ACROSS MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING UP INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE BITTER COLD WILL GET COLDER TODAY, BUT WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON TOP OF IT. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, AND WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA THAT WAS NOT IN IT BEFORE. WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 35-45 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG WINDS, COMBINED WITH THE COLD WILL MAKE FOR LOWERING WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING UP NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. ALSO TODAY, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES, AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY, WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE SINCE THIS IS WHERE THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. AS WITH YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT, ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCUR COULD PRODUCE A QUICK DUSTING. MOST SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACHED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS APPROACHING THE POCONOS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER AND AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK DUSTING OF A HALF INCH TO INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE LESSEN. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN SOME, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. SO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING WINDS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND AS FAR AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT, GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME LOCATED OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BUT NOT BEFORE THE SNOW ACCUMULATES TO ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION THROUGH FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES MAY BE COMMON FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. WE CONTINUE TO BE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE, ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE DAY. WE`VE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, HOWEVER, AFTER THAT WE WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OCCUR TODAY, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED, BUT THE STRONG GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND KRDG AND KABE. MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TODAY. GUSTS OF 40-45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS WELL THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY, HEAVY AT TIMES FOR SOME AREAS. THEREFORE THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, MAINLY FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.25 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY: KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO. RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH, IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW. SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH RER LOW MAX --------------------------- -------------------- ----------- ABE 8 -1 IN 1979 14-1979 ACY 10 -6 IN 1979 13-1979 PHL 12 +2 IN 1979 14-1979 ILG 12 -4 IN 1979 13-1979 RDG 10 -4 IN 1983 TTN 9 0 IN 1916 GED 13 -7 IN 1979 MPO -1 -12 IN 1970
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010- 012>027. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-012>027. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001. DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004. MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015- 019-020. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431- 454-455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO CLIMATE...DRAG

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