Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 280959 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 559 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will move across the Middle Atlantic region today and then offshore tonight. Large high pressure will build across the area Wednesday and then move east of the area by Friday morning. A low and its associated fronts will push across our region Friday and remain into Saturday. More high pressure will be over the area Sunday and into Monday. Another disturbance may affect the area Next Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 6 AM ESTF: CHILLY NNJ and a struggle to reach our fcst max temps. Groups/bands of heavy showers and isolated tstms should continue in NJ today and develop into the Delmarva and se PA later this morning. Torrents of rain in stronger cells with possibly pea sized hail as reported from Lawrenceville around 305AM this morning in a cell VIL of ~34 and well monitored by our DIX MESH. DFA (NPW) cancelled Ocean and Monmouth where rains mixed out the poor vsby. Today...Murky again. Mostly cloudy. Fog and scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms, especially north of the boundary this morning. Possibly a stronger tstm on the Delmarva this aftn where best MLCape of less than 800J. Weak speed shear so svr not expected. PWAT 1.25 so brief torrents of rain possible in any shower. Please follow later PHI discussions and those of SPC regarding SVR potential. FCST basis: 50 50 blended 00z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.Temps were modified downward using the 2m temps from HRRR and NAM. Note..thats max temps in the mid to upper 40s Sussex County, Monmouth and Ocean counties. Going to be difficult for PHL to reach 60. More likely upper 50s there. So the temperature forecast remains a concern with the placement of the eastward- extending warm front again a complicating factor. Errors in these values are likely given timing of the rain cooling factor and where skies may thin to allow a little sun. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... Any remaining showers end from west to east with a slightly faster modeled end to the rain than 24 hours ago. There could be some patchy fog, especially early at night in the still moist boundary layer with a light north wind increasing a bit late at night and trending northwest. FCST Basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/28 GFS/NAM MOS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A rather steady progression of disturbances in the extended period with a 2 day (or so) return period. Fair weather is expected for much of Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure across Canada ridges southward across the area. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the mid/upper 50s south and low/mid 50s north. Lows will be in the mid/upper 30s north and low 40s south. It will be dry and breezy Wednesday, but with wet ground conditions, fire weather hazards will probably not be a big concern. The first of two disturbances in the long term will affect much of the area for much of Friday and Saturday. Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley Friday and then off the VA Tidewater area Saturday. Our region will remain on the cooler nrly part of the system. Occasional showers should occur much of the time. Depending on what computer model, the rains could begin Thu night. Temperatures should remain near or a little below normal thru the period. A couple snowflakes across the highest elevations of the southern Poconos are possible. Fair weather returns over the region for Sunday and persist into Monday as high pressure to the north ridges across the area. Temperatures will be a little above normal with upper 50s to low 60s for highs in most areas. Another disturbance may approach for Tue with the latest EC model having a soaker system across the area and the GFS much slower with the low and a fair weather day for Tue. We just have chc pops for now. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...variable conditions with general deterioration to IFR conds in st/fog by 12z in the light northeast flow. The southerly winds TAFS of MIV and ACY could remain VFR much of the day except lower in showers. Then considerable deterioration ACY and MIV late today when the wind turns decidedly northeast. Bands of showers and isolated tstms, some with brief heavy rain. light wind, mostly east or northeast at the TAF locations except southeast to south at KMIV and KACY at least this morning. Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions possible in showers and fog early... becoming VFR late. Light north winds will become north to northwest overnight around 10 knots. OUTLOOK... wed/thu...VFR expected. Gusty north winds Wed. fri/sat...lower cigs/vsbys expected. Showers. && .MARINE... Dense Fog Advisory continues for the New Jersey coastal waters north of Little Egg. Areas south may also develop dense fog this morning, but it is less certain at this time. Winds/seas will be under advisory criteria through Tonight. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms through today, with showers ending this evening. OUTLOOK... wed...sub-sca conditions. wed night/thu morning...low end sca near the nj coastal waters. thu afternoon thru fri...sub-sca expected. Showers fri. fri night thru sat...sca possible. showers. && .EQUIPMENT... KNEL appears to be reading 10F too warm the past several days. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450-451. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Drag 6a Short Term...Drag Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Drag/O`Hara 6a Marine...Drag/O`Hara Equipment...

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