Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 261944 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 344 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary extended from southern New England across our region to the Ohio River Valley this afternoon. The front is forecast to drift southward allowing high pressure from the north to build into our region over the weekend. Another frontal boundary from the northwest is expected to arrive early in the new week and it should meander in our vicinity through Wednesday. A cold front approaching from the northwest is anticipated to arrive early on Thursday. High pressure should follow for Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Front should continue to slide south through the region this afternoon and evening. As mentioned by the previous shift though, this is a rather weak cold front, so the main impact for us will be decreasing dew points and winds shifting to the north and eventually northeast very late tonight. With the dry air advection, temperatures should be able to fall into the 60s for most locations (with the exception of Delmarva and Philly metro.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Upper level ridge inches north through the day tomorrow. As a result, the dry pattern will continue through the day tomorrow. As the surface high builds south, breezy conditions (northeasterly winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at the shore) will be possible early in the day, but should taper off through the afternoon as the center of the high slides over the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure at mid levels is forecast to become centered over the upper Delmarva on Saturday night. The mid level ridge is then expected to begin flattening as a short wave trough approaches from the Great Lakes. The axis of the short wave is anticipated to move across New York State and New England on Monday afternoon and Monday evening. A more substantial short wave is expected to pass overhead late on Thursday. A weak surface front was dropping southward through our region this afternoon. High pressure is forecast to build from the Great Lakes today to Quebec and the northeastern states on Saturday. The center of the high should pass off Canada`s Maritime coast on Sunday. Another weak frontal boundary associated with the first mid level short wave is anticipated to arrive in the wake of the high on Monday. It appears as though the front will stall and weaken over or near our region on Tuesday and Wednesday. A more substantial cold front is expected to arrive either late on Wednesday night or early on Thursday. The boundary will be in advance of the second short wave. Somewhat cooler air and noticeably lower humidity is anticipated for the end of the week. While there are signals in the guidance suggesting the potential for showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, none is particularly strong. As a result, we will include only a slight chance of precipitation at those times. Perhaps, the greatest chance of rain this week in our region will be Wednesday in advance of the cold front. We will start with a slight chance for now and we may raise the probability a bit if subsequent model runs suggest an adjustment.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Any mid level clouds should dissipate by 00Z leaving only high cirrus clouds for the remainder of the TAF period. Northwesterly winds will taper off before or near 00Z, and should shift to northerly by 06Z and northeasterly by 12Z. OUTLOOK... Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Late night and early morning visibility restrictions are possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria tonight and tomorrow. The shift to northwesterly winds should arrive on the coastal waters by sunset. By tomorrow morning, winds will be out of the northeast. A few gusts near 20 kt are possible through the day tomorrow. OUTLOOK... Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines are anticipated. RIP CURRENTS... A low risk continues for today. On Saturday...the probable risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is moderate for the NJ shore and low for the Delaware beaches. Winds are expected to shift onshore earlier than previously anticipated, and wave heights are expected to be near or above 3 ft. The long period swells from Tropical Storm Gaston may begin to approach the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware on Sunday as the system nears 60 degrees west longitude. However, the long period 10 to 15 second swells are forecast to become more pronounced along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware on Monday and Tuesday even as Gaston makes his forecast turn and heads northeastward. Momentum in the swells reaching our coast due to the original westward motion of the tropical system should result in an enhanced threat for the development of dangerous rip currents for much of the new week.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Johnson Short Term...Johnson Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Iovino/Johnson Marine...Iovino/Johnson

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