Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPHI 071327
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
827 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016
Low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will move out to sea today
while another area of low pressure drifts through southeast Canada.
This low will continue to slowly drift eastward through the end of
the week and move offshore of the Canadian maritimes by Friday and
Saturday. With high pressure to our west, a strong west to
northwest flow will remain through the end of the week. High
pressure briefly affects the area Saturday night. An area of low
pressure is forecast to move north of the area Sunday into Sunday
night, bringing a cold front across the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
815 AM ESTF update: changed l-- to L- and in fact its measurabledrizzle
for parts of NJ the next6 few hours. Lift as seen in satellite IR
is wringing out some of the last remnants of moisture from last
nights coastal low, which has left a trough westward to near I-78.
This is easily seen in wind fields fm LI to NJ. The impact of this
low diminishes rapidly during midday. I probably should have
categorical rain in the forecast from near I-195 north but for now
the update suffices. Increased sky cover in NJ/ne PA through theday
as clearing appears difficult to achieve north of the trough with
an eastward moving sfc low off the Delmarva.
Clearing along and south of I-78 should occur this afternoon.
High temperatures will generally be in the 45-50F range with cooler
spots in the higher elevations of NE PA and NW NJ (mid 30s to lower
40s) and warmer spots in S DE and E MD (low 50s).
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
An incredible 1054 mb surface high over the northern Rockies is
forecast to build southward into the Great Plains tonight. An
extension from this high will ridge eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic
region tonight. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will move across
James Bay and into northern Quebec tonight. This system`s cold front
advances southeastward into the Great Lakes region.
The pressure gradient is modest but it may still be strong enough to
produce a light W-NW across most of the area. However, the sheltered
valleys will likely see the boundary layer decouple and temperatures
dropping rather fast after sunset. Accordingly, we`ll likely see a
decent spread in temperatures tonight depending on location. High
clouds associated with a strong upper-level jet streak are expected
to move into the region from SW to NE overnight, but the impact on
radiational cooling is questionable. A blend of the MAV/MET was used
to make the min temperature forecast, but also used some of the
mesoscale model guidance (RGEM, NCEP WRF ARW/NMM) to highlight the
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday, an area of low pressure will slowly be moving across
eastern Canada, before reaching the Canadian maritimes Friday into
Saturday, while high pressure remains across the central part of
the country. This will keep a steady west to northwest flow across
the area. A broad trough aloft will remain across the east coast,
with an elongated vorticity impulse moving across the area
Thursday and a weaker impulse moving across the area Friday. There
is not a lot of moisture across the area Thursday as it`s forecast
to remain northwest of the area, but the strength of the vort max
and the surface winds may help carry some flurries/sprinkles
across the area during the day. On Friday, the short wave is
weaker, but there is more enhanced low level moisture and steep
low-mid level lapse rates during the day, so there could be even
more widespread showers or flurries/sprinkles across the area.
Especially across our northwestern areas. By Saturday, another
short wave/vorticity impulse is forecast to move across the area
as the northwest flow begins to weaken as the low lifts farther
away and high pressure begins to approach from the west. There
will continue to be steep low-mid level lapse rates during the
daytime combined with some enhanced moisture, especially across
the northern areas. Therefore there will continue to be a chance
for some isolated showers/flurries across the northern half of the
area. High pressure briefly affects the area Saturday night,
providing dry conditions. Thursday through Saturday will be a cold
and windy period, with Friday being the windiest, and Saturday
being the coolest of the 3 day period.
On Sunday night, an area of low pressure is forecast to move
north of the area, pulling a cold front across the region. Another
low pressure is forecast to develop along the boundary, although
the GFS and ECMWF differ on where they develop the low. The GFS
develops this secondary low north of the area, while the ECMWF
develops it to our south. Sunday night looks like the most likely
period for precipitation, but it could linger into Monday if the
low does develop around or south of the area as the ECMWF
indicates, so we`ll keep a chance of precipitation into Monday.
Temperatures will be cold enough for portions of the area to
experience wintry precipitation. The exact timing and placement of
wintry precipitation is still to be determined, but as usual, the
most likely areas for snow would be the northern half of the area.
Dry conditions are currently expected for Monday night into
Tuesday as high pressure is forecast to briefly build to our south
and nose its way into our area. The GFS and ECMWF are showing the
potential for a coastal low to develop on the old frontal boundary
to our south by next Wednesday, which could bring some
precipitation to the southern half of the area. With cold
temperatures, it`s possible that a period of snow could develop
for the southern portions of the area.
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...IFR conditions in drizzle/fog most of the TAF sites will
improve from southwest to northeast late this morning, first to
mvfr cigs and eventually to VFR cigs this afternoon. TAFS were all
amended around around 1310z for 1-4 hour delays in the improvement.
Wind generally northwest with gusts under 15 kt.
Tonight...VFR. W-NW winds will be light (under 10 kt).
Thursday-Saturday...MVFR CIGS may be possible each morning before
lifting to VFR during the day. Scattered showers or
flurries/sprinkles are possible during the daytime of each day which
may temporarily lower conditions. Gusty west to northwest winds 15-
25 knots, strongest winds Thursday and Friday.
Sunday...VFR early, lowering to MVFR then IFR by the afternoon and
overnight. Rain or snow possible late in the day and overnight.
GLW was downgraded to a SCA for the southern coastal waters and
lower DE Bay. This SCA goes through the mid evening. Farther north
along the NJ coast, the SCA was extended through the afternoon. We
should still see wind gusts to 25 kt through about mid morning, then
seas will be the hazard. Seas will eventually subside to below 5 ft
Also, the SCA was canceled for the upper DE Bay.
Thursday-Saturday...Small Craft Advisory levels winds expected
through the periods with west to northwest winds gusting 25-30
Saturday night-Sunday...Winds expected to drop below Small Craft
Advisory levels, but pick up again late Sunday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ450-
Near Term...Drag 826A