Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 011449 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1049 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST SO FAR. ONLY SOME MINOR HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS, MAINLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER. OTHERWISE, FORECAST LOOKS GOOD; MOSTLY DRY WITH A ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NORTH. A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EVEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT SLIDES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY UNIFORM SO NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR STRONGER LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES GET CLOSE TO 1000J/KG BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD AS WE COULD HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH A THERMAL TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THAN ANYWHERE ELSE TODAY. STRONGER HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD MAKE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST OUT OF REACH. BETTER VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT PASSAGE. OVERALL A WARM BUT PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AND WE LOSE THE GUSTY WINDS. ANY CU THAT FORMS WILL ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO LOSE THE SUSTAINED WINDS BEFORE DECOUPLING BUT EXPECTING OUR SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE LOW- 60S WITH EVEN COOLER DEWPOINTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM IS ANTICIPATED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, EXTENDS EAST AND INFLUENCES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE, RANGING MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND LIFT. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW, SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. THIS OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARBY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY, WE MOSTLY USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND WINDS. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE WEST- SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KNOTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ABE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTINESS...WE SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE TOWARDS 4 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE

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