Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 130759 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 359 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, TRACKING FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG AND ERN CAN WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS MOVES NEWD. THE ASSOCD WK CDFNT WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTN AND EVE BRINGING SOME RAIN. OVERALL QPF IS QUITE LIGHT, GENLY AROUND .10 INCHES OR SO AND THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO A PD RANGING FROM LATER THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN, WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL THE PRECIP OVER FROM W TO E, BY LATE AFTN INTO ERLY EVE. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID, PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF PRECIP A BIT. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS, WHICH IS BELOW NRML FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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PRECIP WILL BE OVER FOR WRN AND CNTRL AREAS AND COMING TO AN END, IF NOT OVER IN ERN AREAS ERLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE SKY WILL CLEAR AND THE REST OF TONIGHT LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR OUR REGION AS THE QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S THROUGH THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST NJ TO MAINLY THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE, WITH DAYTIME READINGS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND WE HAVE KEPT SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO BE IN THE PICTURE AT THIS TIME FOR TUESDAY MORNING, SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH DECREASING POPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST AND OFFSHORE, AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE AND NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDS WILL START AND END THE PD, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR WITH RAIN IN THE MIDDLE. HIGH PRES TO THE NE OVER NEW ENG AND ERN CANADA HAS BEEN THE MAIN WX FEATURE OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH IS MOVING NEWD. AS IT DOES, AND AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE GRTLKS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BRING A WK CDFNT THRU THE REGION FROM W TO E FROM LATE MRNG TO ERLY EVE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. BY AFTN INTO ERLY EVE (FROM W TO E) CONDS SHUD BEING TO IMPROVE WITH EVERYONE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE NE, BECOME MORE S AND EVENTUALLY NW BEHIND THE CFP, BUT SPEEDS ARE FCST TO BE 10 KTS OR LESS THRU THE PD. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS ARE FCST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE, THRU THE PD. LATEST GUID INDICATES THAT WIND COULD INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN NWLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE CFP. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AND THE WINDOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR APPEARS SMALL SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY SCA ISSUANCES ATTM. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MAY YIELD SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS INTO THE 4 FOOT RANGE FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, THOUGH, INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND AREA WATERS. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. WEDNESDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...

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