Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 030435 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1235 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER VIRGINIA AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY COMBINING WITH ANOTHER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMPLEX LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1230 AM UPDATE...STARTED TRIMMING THE THUNDER MENTION AS THE INSTABILITY IS DECREASING WITH THE REMAINING THUNDER NOW NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HOWEVER THE FORCING WITH A REMNANT MCV IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE. WE ARE EXPECTING RENEWED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. SOME TWEAKS WERE DONE TO THE VERY NEAR TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND UVV MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WITH NELY WINDS TO ITS NORTH OVER THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE DRYING OUT SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FEATURE SINKS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO EVENTUALLY REACH NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND MEANDERING OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION, PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DONE AND MOVING OFFSHORE AS OF 0430Z. THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING, ONLY VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS DRAWING IN MARINE AIR. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS OF 1230 AM...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SO THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SELY WIND THIS EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO NE OVER NIGHT AND TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA SHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 TO 4 FT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLEIN SHORT TERM...AMC LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN MARINE...AMC/IOVINO/KLEIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

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