Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 131251 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 851 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF DELAWARE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BANDS OF WAA LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NEWD FROM VA THROUGH PA THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN IN NJ/DELAWARE WHILE THE RAIN TENDS TO DWINDLE TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN E PA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS, WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... BAROCLINIC ZONE SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A BIT OF A NNW BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE GRADIENT ISOBARIC NORTHERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR OUR REGION AS THE QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S THROUGH THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST NJ TO MAINLY THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE, WITH DAYTIME READINGS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND WE HAVE KEPT SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO BE IN THE PICTURE AT THIS TIME FOR TUESDAY MORNING, SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH DECREASING POPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST AND OFFSHORE, AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE AND NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL 3-5 MI VSBY IN SHOWERS. LIGHT WIND...TENDING TO BE NE. TONIGHT...VFR CIGS EARLY WITH POSSIBLE LEFT MVFR CIGS THEN BECOMING CLEAR BY 04Z/14 WITH JUST A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY MVFR FOG FOR A SHORT TIME. NNW WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 KT LATE. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE FCST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS MORNING AS A COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS NE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD IN THE GRADIENT NNW COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH FOR AN SCA AND THE WINDOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR IS SHORT SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY SCA ISSUANCE`S ATTM. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MAY YIELD SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS INTO THE 4 FOOT RANGE FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, THOUGH, INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND AREA WATERS. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. WEDNESDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDES ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NNJ COAST. THE SURGE THIS MORNING IS AROUND 1 FOOT AND BEING MONITORED FOR NO GREATER DEPARTURE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. IF THE DEPARTURE INCREASES TO 1.3 FT...WE`D NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. ATTM NO ISSUANCE. && .RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 850 SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 850 LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/NIERENBERG 850 MARINE...DRAG/KLINE/NIERENBERG 850 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...850 RIP CURRENTS...

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