Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 181146 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 746 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Jose will continue moving northward well off the Mid Atlantic coastline over the next couple of days. By Wednesday, it will begin to weaken and move slowly northeastward near southeastern New England through the remainder of the week. A ridge of high pressure will also become established to our north through the mid and late week time period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A quick update has been issued to add in drizzle this morning from about the I-95 corridor on south and east. Radar imagery shows weak returns and given the stratus in place, this is typically representative of drizzle. In addition, added fog to the northwestern areas and increased the cloud cover given the ongoing stratus across much of the region. Otherwise, this is the final day in a stagnant pattern that we have been in over the last several days. The mid and upper level trough that has been over our region will fill through the day. Onshore flow, reinforced by the approaching Jose, will help to keep low clouds in for much of the region through the day. As for precip, we could see a few showers develop under what is left of the mid and upper level trough, generally west of the fall line, and a few of the very outer rain bands of Jose may reach the coast late in the day. Temperatures will be dependent on when or if we see breaks in the stratus (it seems unlikely that we will see much clearing east of the fall line). Stayed close to the previous forecast with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tonight, we start to see more influence from Hurricane Jose, both in terms of increasing winds (along the shore) and increasing chances for outer rain bands to reach our Coastal Plains. Based on the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center, it doesn`t look like we will have many outer rain bands through the overnight hours, so kept rain amounts generally less than a half of an inch (at least through the tonight period). Persistent clouds should limit radiational cooling, so lows are forecast to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Hurricane Jose to have an impact on our weather Tuesday and Wednesday but still expected to track well offshore. Please refer to NHC for track and intensity forecasts. Expected impacts to our region discussed below. Tuesday through Wednesday night: Coastal flooding: Right now model guidance continues to hone in on the Tuesday morning and evening high tides when Jose makes it`s closest pass to the region for coastal flooding. Tidal departures are still modeled to be one to two feet above normal which would result in some moderate coastal flooding. With Jose further away Wednesday and Thursday, any flooding would likely be more of the minor or spotty minor variety. Winds: Most of the region will have a windy period Tuesday and Tuesday night with top wind gusts 20-30 mph inland and 40-45 mph along the coast. These wind gusts may down a few trees and wires. Rainfall: General rainfall of an inch or less is expected with locally higher amounts on the coast. The 00z RGEM/UKMET and GFS have come in fairly dry early this morning which gives some pause to the wetter EC suite and the NAM. Trends of being slightly further offshore this morning has allowed for the trim back of some pops and QPF with this forecast update. Also, clouds will keep temperatures down in the 70`s at least Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as well. Overnight lows will be warm, mainly in the 60`s due to the clouds and increased wind. Thursday through Monday: Right now about one-third of all ensemble guidance shows Jose making a loop back to the southwest by the end of the week. A slightly higher amount of 00z GEFS members are doing this than with previous runs though. Any southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid- level ridging developing to our west and north throughout the remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will go with the mainstream idea that Jose will continue to be located east enough of the region to limit impacts besides coastal flooding past Wednesday. With the ridging building to our north, mid-level temperatures will warm even more than we have seen so far allowing highs to make a run into the 80`s most days with above normal lows as well in the 60`s. A further east Jose will also allow for ample sunshine. This forecast went a few degrees warmer than mean ensemble guidance most days. If Jose were to trend back to the southwest, it would be much weaker but bring clouds along with somewhat cooler temperatures. In conclusion... Please refer to the NHC for the latest track and advisory and to the TCV for a more detailed summary of impacts from Jose. While uncertainty is decreasing on Jose, a westward shift could still increase the potential impacts our region sees. Hurricane Maria will have to be watched closely as well but anything in that regard is still +7 days away. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Low stratus is across most of the TAF sites, resulting in IFR or locally LIFR conditions. Even if we see some breaks in the low stratus later this morning, any improvement in flight categories will likely be short lived. Some drizzle and/or fog this morning may result in local visibility restrictions at times. With building onshore flow in advance of Hurricane Jose passing off the coast, expect additional low clouds to linger much of the day. Though ceilings may increase after 14-15Z with increasing mixing, it is unlikely based on the prevailing pattern that we will improve to VFR conditions (except at KRDG and KABE which will have less of an influence of the onshore flow). Winds will generally be out of the northeast at or below 10 knots through the day, but late tonight, expect a shift to northerly and increasing speeds especially at KMIV and KACY. Outlook... Tuesday and Tuesday night: MVFR or IFR possible with showers, particularly from KPHL to the east. Wind gusts 20-25 knots inland and around 30 knots on the coast at times. Wednesday through Friday: VFR. Northerly or Northwesterly winds around 10-15 knots Wednesday then decreasing to under 10 knots for Thursday and Friday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas will begin building late today in advance of Hurricane Jose passing off shore. Wind gusts above 25 KT will be possible by mid afternoon today on the Atlantic Coastal waters. Winds and seas will continue to build through the overnight hours with gusts near or above 40 KT and seas above 10 ft possible by early Tuesday morning. Outlook... A tropical storm watch is in effect. Details in the MWW. Late Monday night through Wednesday...Tropical storm conditions will be possible. Although winds will begin to diminish Wednesday, it will take time for seas to subside. Wednesday night through Friday...Northeast to east swells of 5 feet may continue hazardous seas advisory because of the meandering and slowly decaying remains of Jose. Rip Currents... High surf due to Hurricane Jose will continue to create dangerous rip current conditions through at least mid week.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A coastal flood advisory has been issued starting this evening. See the CFW product for more details. Coastal flooding is expected with the Atlantic coast high tide cycles tonight through Wednesday due to the passage of Hurricane Jose. A prolonged period of east to northeast winds due to Hurricane Jose will force water to build along the shores. In addition, there is a new moon on Wednesday, September 20th, so astronomical tide levels will be running high. The high tide cycle of greatest concern at this point is the Tuesday evening high tide, especially Sandy Hook to Cape May. Otherwise, mostly widespread minor coastal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle early Tuesday, and those early Wednesday.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KSMQ transmission of data continues ots. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012>014-020>027. Tropical Storm Watch for NJZ013-014-020-022>027. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016. DE...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002>004. Tropical Storm Watch for DEZ003-004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Gaines Near Term...Gorse/Johnson Short Term...Johnson Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Gaines/Gorse/Johnson Marine...Gaines/Johnson Tides/Coastal Flooding... Equipment...

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