Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 140709
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
309 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our south will drift off the Southeast coast
through today. Low pressure will pass north of our area tonight
through Friday. A pair of cold fronts will pass through Sunday and
Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will continue drifting off the southeast coast
through Thursday, with a sunny, dry day, along with light west to
southwest flow continuing both at the surface and aloft. This will
result in additional warm air advection, and while winds will remain
light mainly less than 10 mph on Thursday, enough mixing and
compressional warming under the building ridge aloft will result in
even warmer temperatures Thursday. Expect it will be the warmest day
of the week, with highs easily into the low to mid 70s. The Poconos
and the shore will once again be cooler, with another light
seabreeze developing in the afternoon.

A weak disturbance will pass by the region Thursday night, bringing
a chance for showers mainly across the northern half of the CWA.
Accumulation looks to be light though, with less than a tenth of an
inch expected. Increasing clouds will lead to a mild night with lows
expected in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warm conditions will continue through Friday with forecast highs in
the upper 60s to low to mid 70s once again, but chances for rainfall
will arrive for the latter half of the day as a cold front sweeps
through the region. Guidance has maintained widespread accumulations
of between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, but some locally
heavier amounts will be possible wherever a heavier shower sets up.
As we get in range of the CAM guidance, there is some agreement that
the heaviest showers will set up around the Delmarva peninsula and
southern New Jersey. In these locations, up to a half inch of rain
is possible. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder either in
these spots as model soundings show some elevated instability and
modest lapse rates.

Behind the front, temperatures fall into the 40s Friday night as
conditions dry out. Weak ridging moves overhead Saturday, bringing a
dry day with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Another cold front approaches on Saturday Night, with some showers
possible late north of I-78. Most, if not all, of the night will be
dry and precipitation chances are only around 15-20% in these spots.
Otherwise, quiet and tranquil weather for the rest of the region
with increasing clouds and temperatures in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Relatively benign in the long term overall with below normal
temperatures for most of next week.

A cold front arrives to bring another chance for rain on Sunday.
Still a bit of model spread in terms of the track of the low, with
the latest guidance pulling further north. Therefore, as of now, the
best chances for any showers (around 25-35%) on Sunday will be
generally north of I-78. The cold air will lag behind the front,
with highs on Sunday expected to get into the mid to upper 50s/low
60s. Upper 40s are anticipated within the Pocono Plateau. Cooler,
more seasonable air begins to filter in on Sunday Night, with lows
getting back near seasonal norms. Expecting a spread of 30s across
the area.

A stretch of below-normal temperatures looks to begin on Monday.
Long-range guidance continues to suggest a reinforcing cold
front arriving on Monday, with a few showers possible ahead of
the front, mainly across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Can`t
fully rule out the chance for some flurries or snow showers
during the day Monday either, most likely in the southern
Poconos. As a result of the front, temperatures fall down below
climo with highs on Monday through Wednesday generally in the
40s as high pressure builds into the region. Brisk northwest
flow in the wake of the secondary front could result in some
breezy days through the middle of the week, with some of the
guidance showing gusts in the 20-30 MPH range during the day.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Early this morning...VFR. West/southwest winds around 5 kt or less.
High confidence.

Thursday...VFR with mostly clear skies. West winds becoming more
southwest as the day goes on, and south to southeast later in the
afternoon along the shore, up to ACY, but mainly less than 10 kt.
High confidence.

Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Southerly winds around 5-10 knots. A
light rain shower possible (25-35% chance), mainly northwest of the
I-95 terminals. A 40kt low-level jet develops around 2kft overnight.
Moderate confidence overall, low confidence on LLWS.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub-VFR conditions likely with periods of rain moving
through. West/northwest winds around 10-15 kt. Low confidence.

Friday Night...Sub-VFR conditions likely with rain and possibly a
thunderstorm (mainly for KACY/KMIV) for the first half of the night.
North/northwest winds around 5-10 kt. Low confidence.

Saturday through Saturday Night...VFR. West/northwest winds in the
morning will become south/southwesterly for the afternoon and
overnight hours. Wind speeds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday through Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15%) of
showers near KABE, but otherwise dry for most. West/southwest winds
around 10-15 kt, gusting 20-25 during the day decreasing to 5-10 kt
at night. Low confidence.

Monday...Primarily VFR though slight chance (15%) of a rain or snow
shower at KABE/KRDG. Westerly winds 10-15 kt gusting 20-25 kt. Low
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Fair weather across all marine zones Thursday with no marine
headlines expected.

South to southwest winds gradually ramp up Thursday night,
increasing to 15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Occasional gusts up
to 25 kts possible, but should remain isolated.

Outlook...

Friday...No marine headlines anticipated. Southwest winds around 10-
20 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday Night...No marine headlines anticipated though
rain/thunderstorms possible (50-70%) for some of the night. Winds
becoming northerly around 10-15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Saturday through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Winds will become southwesterly around 10-20 kt by the late morning.
Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated. West/southwest winds 10-15
kt gusting up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Monday...SCA conditions possible (50%) as west/northwest winds will
increase to 15-20 kt, with gusts 25-30 kt possible. Seas 2 to 4
feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding remains possible for the Delaware River,
with Burlington reaching Advisory thresholds by Thursday morning.
Will go ahead and combine the counties along the Burlington River
for the high tide cycle Thursday morning. The Delaware River at
Philadelphia will come close to minor thresholds, but may not reach
Advisory thresholds.

For Delaware Bay, forecast tide levels now look to be below minor
thresholds, so will cancel the Coastal Flood Advisory that was in
effect for the counties along Delaware Bay.

Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible for the Atlantic coast,
but widespread coastal flooding not expected so will not issue
a Coastal Flood Advisory for the New Jersey oceanfront.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070-
     071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Dodd/Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...AKL/Hoeflich
LONG TERM...AKL/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS


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