Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 151421 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1021 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak surface trough will linger across the area today before weakening tonight. High pressure will gradually build to our north and northeast this weekend. Tropical cyclone Jose is forecast to move northward offshore of the mid Atlantic coast early next week and interests in New Jersey and Delaware should monitor future forecasts as to its potential proximity and possible impacts on our weather late Monday through Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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930 AM: small adjustments to temps/dewpoints today. No major change on high temp from that which was previous forecast. Have lowered skycover through Friday...especially s of I-78. Not sure how much shower activity today and may update again around 1045 AM. Today should be a brighter day, with less coverage of showers than ydy. Instability may yield isolated tstms as it did last evening but most of the activity should be in the hills near and north of I-78. We have started tropical wording in our zone and coastal waters forecast and will continue this until the tropical probabilities decrease below our mentionable thresholds. Temperatures should be close to yesterdays temperatures, with highs ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. Tonight...with dew points still expecting to be near 60, we could see a third straight night of patchy fog developing, especially with the mid level cloud deck expected to be less extensive tonight. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with lows generally in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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There remains a chance of mainly afternoon showers as a weak trough aloft and associated vorticity should linger. Most of the lift and showers should be in the hills This will lead to enhanced lift across the area each day, mainly in the afternoon, which could lead to a chance for scattered showers each day. These may be more diurnally driven and diminish around/after sunset.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure is forecast to build to our northwest on Saturday, then weaken on Sunday before retreating northward through Monday. However, there will remain a chance of mainly daytime showers this weekend as a weak trough aloft and associated vorticity could linger across the east coast through the weekend. Also, a weak surface trough may linger as well. This will lead to enhanced lift across the area each day, mainly in the afternoon, which could lead to a chance for scattered showers each day. These may be more diurnally driven and diminish around/after sunset. Our attention then turns to the track of Tropical Storm Jose. The official track from the NHC keeps the storm off the coast through Tuesday evening. The long range guidance continues to keep the storm offshore of the Mid Atlantic region as it lifts northward into Wednesday. The 00z GFS and ECMWF have both shifted farther west with their tracks, although the GFS is farther west and faster than the ECMWF. The track of the storm will be depended on how strong ridging to our west takes place, and how quickly a front to our north will get to the east coast before watching out and help pull Jose away from the area. Based on the current forecast track from NHC and WPC which are farther east of the latest operations GFS and closer to the ECMWF, we can expect some impacts from Jose late Monday night/early Tuesday into late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Rain chances are expected to begin increasing late Monday night, through Tuesday night. We can also expect an increase in winds during this time period as well. Depending on how close Jose passes to the coast will determine how strong these effects area. Coastal areas of Delaware and New Jersey have the greatest threat for impacts. Please stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest official track and forecast regarding Tropical Storm Jose. Remember, we are at the peak of hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, so it is important to have a hurricane plan in place. For tips as to what to have in your hurricane plan, please check http:/www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hurricane/plan.shtml
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&& .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR sct-bkn aoa 5000 ft developing with a small chance of an afternoon shower. Light wind. Tonight...VFR with PATCHY IFR conds in st/fog late at night in the countryside. Nearly calm wind. Saturday...VFR sct-bkn developing aoa 5000 ft during the afternoon. Light wind. OUTLOOK... Saturday-Sunday night...MVFR CIGS possible for ABE/RDG, VFR elsewhere. Patchy fog/stratus during the late night/early morning hours. Scattered showers also possible during the day. Monday-Tuesday...MVFR CIGS developing as Tropical Storm Jose approaches the area. Rainfall chances increasing later Monday through Tuesday, which will likely lower conditions further. Depending on the track of Jose, winds could increase across the area as well.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas should stay below small craft advisory criteria today and tonight. SCA seas may develop late Saturday afternoon in our s NJ and De Atlantic waters when swells from Jose are expected to arrive. Outlook... Saturday night-Sunday night...Conditions may reach Small Craft Advisory levels as seas build to 5-7 feet. Monday-Monday night...Winds forecast to increase through the day and into the night with gusts 25-30 knots possible. Seas continue to increase to 6-10 feet. Tuesday...Depending on the track of Tropical Storm Jose, winds could continue to increase to gale force with gusts of 35-40 knots, and seas could increase to 10-15 feet. Rip Currents... For today, we are forecasting a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents. Long period (10 sec) southeasterly swells. A long duration of a moderate to potentially high risk of rip currents is expected this coming weekend through early next week (16th through possibly the 19th) as long period and larger swells from Tropical Storm Jose becomes more pronounced along our shores, especially as it passes to our east around Tuesday or Wednesday.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... The Millville (MIV) observation is unavailable due to an FAA outage, while the Somerville (SMQ) observation is unavailable due to a web issue. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Robertson/Drag 1021 Near Term...Drag 1021 Short Term...Drag 1021 Long Term...Robertson Aviation...Drag/Robertson 1021 Marine...Drag/Robertson 1021 Equipment...

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