-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 141350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR REGION TODAY AND THEN SETTLE OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT. DURING WEDNESDAY, A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM MICHIGAN TO VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR RECORD COLD OCCURRED THIS MORNING AT PHL...RDG..ILG. SEE CLI
SECTION.

12Z/14 SOUNDINGS OFFER 59-62F FULL SUN TODAY. SINCE WAA IS IN
PROGRESS TODAYS MAX`S AND FCST LOOK ON TARGET AS OF 930 AM...MAYBE
A DEGREE ON THE HIGH SIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SERN CONUS TODAY. AS IT DOES,
THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE WLY THEN SWLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY, BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MAY...AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER SE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACRS
ONTARIO.  THE STRONG WARM FRONT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW  WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PD.  THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON PRECIP CHCS BY THE END OF THE PD, BUT HAS
TRENDED DRIER.  THE 14/00Z NAM/WRF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY AS IS THE CMC,
THE GFS HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE SW, WHILE THE ECMWF
BARELY HAS THE LEADING EDGE AT OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY THE END OF THE
PD. SO FOR NOW, HAVE JUST GONE WITH SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE WRN
AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLACEMENT AND TIMING UNCERTAIN AND
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAINFREE. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS, THUS LIMITING INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WE MAINTAIN
MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH, FOR SCATTERED
SHWRS/T-STORMS AS MU CAPES AND LI VALUES SHOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN TO EVENING TIMEFRAME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NEARBY
SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF OUR REGION BY EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH SOME SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. BY MID TO LATE DAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MODELED INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHWRS/T-STORMS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER OUR DELMARVA REGION. THIS FRONT MAY STALL FOR A
TIME JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND WE HAVE ADDED POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO INDICATE AN ONGOING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHWR/T-STORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE FARTHER NORTH, THROUGH EASTERN PA
AND MUCH OF NJ, MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME SUN AND MILD TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY SUNDAY. FROM THERE, MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE, BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE FROM SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK HAS UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SCATTERED SHWR/T-STORM ACTIVITY. WE USED A
BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AT THIS EXTENDED TIMEFRAME
AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CIRRUS IN THE AFTN. WNW WIND WIND GUSTS LESS THAN
15 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 7000 FT DEVELOPING FM NW TO SE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE AFTER 04Z. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR TSTM...ESPECIALLY AFTN. SSW WIND GUSTS 15 KT IN THE AFTN.



OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME LOWERING TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHWRS/T-STORMS, MAINLY
EVENING.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN AFTN TO EVE, WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF LOWERING MVFR.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SERN CONUS TODAY AND THEN FURTHER
EWD OVER THE SERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE WIND
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.

WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE INDICATES OUR COASTAL WATERS WILL REACH SCA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5
FT ON THE ATLC WATERS DURING THE AFTN GENERATED BY THE SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WFRONT. FOR LOWER DE BAY THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF SCA WIND GUSTS WED AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HEADLINE.


OUTLOOK...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SCA MAY
POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE SEAS DIMINISH. ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR OUR WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
THIS WILL BE THE LAST POST OF THIS CLIMATE SECTION.

PHL WAS WITHIN 1F OF RECORD WITH A LOW OF 41 AS WAS RDG WITH ITS
34. ILG IS 36 - RECORD EQUALING AT 36F.

PHL 40 1996 POR DATES BACK TO 1872
RDG 33 1996 POR DATES BACK TO 1869
ILG 36 1996 1940 1939 POR DATES BACK TO AT LEAST 1917
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 949A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 949A
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 949A
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE
CLIMATE...949A