-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 242051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
451 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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IT IS A LOVELY MARCH DAY OUT, EXCEPT THAT IT IS, OF COURSE, MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND!

A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W.  THEN, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND MOVE
NEWD THRU SAT.  AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE W.

AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LAST HOUR.  WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL
KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY.  PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW.  TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.

GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE REAL NEAR TERM.  MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTUAL CIG HGTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FCST.  MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN ABOUT 1500 AND
2500 FT MOST OF THE DAY.  THE OVERALL TREND IS UPWARD THOUGH AND
THERE SHOULD BE A RETURN TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE TIMING.  SOME GUID INDICATED THE RETURN
TO VFR WOULD BE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE WHILE OTHER GUID WAS MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND WAITED UNTIL LATE EVE.  CURRENT THINKING IS THE
EARLIER TIMING IS LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
LATER TIMING AS WELL, SO HAVE SPLIT THE DIFF FOR NOW.

THE GOOD NEWS IS ONCE WE GET TO VFR, WE WILL REMAIN THERE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD AND INTO THE WKND.

THE NEXT BIG STORY IS THE WIND. A LOW PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ALG THE
CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W.  THE RESULTANT STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING
AOA 30 KTS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SAT.  IT IS PSBL TO HAVE SOME 35 KT
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED 40 KT GUST ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
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GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
     451.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI/ROBERTSON