Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240948 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 548 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across eastern Canada and far northern New England today through Monday, extending into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure strengthens well offshore of the East Coast. An approaching front looks to arrive from the west around midweek with the potential for a coastal low to develop along it and track northward along the coast by Thursday into Friday. High pressure may briefly return late Friday before a warm front lifts northward toward the area next Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low pressure continues to move away northeast of the region with high pressure gradually nudging southward towards the area as it moves through the Great Lakes region. As a result, the strongest of the winds have abated so the Wind Advisory was allowed to expire. That said, it will still remain blustery into the day today with northerly winds 10 to 20 gusting up to 25 mph through the morning before winds further abate in the afternoon as high pressure builds in. The other story will be the colder temperatures. Generally expect lows this morning in the 20s to low 30s but the wind chill will make it feel a good 10 to 15 degrees colder with even some single digit wind chill values in the Poconos. By this afternoon temperatures will rebound to the upper 40s to around 50 for most under mainly sunny skies. For tonight, high pressure will be centered north of the area over southern Quebec into New England. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure spawned from our storm earlier this weekend will be sitting and spinning well out over the Atlantic as it becomes a closed low aloft cut off from the main flow. The tendency in fact will be for it to drift westward slightly closer to the region. It won`t bring us any more precipitation but it will result in winds increasing some once again out of the northeast. Generally expect northeast winds of 10 to 15 gusting upwards of 20 to 25 mph along the coast by Monday morning. This, however, will keep temperatures from bottoming out so we expect lows mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s except a bit warmer near the coast due to the onshore flow. For Monday, not much change expected as winds will remain a bit blustery out of the northeast, especially near the coast, while another mainly sunny day is expected. Generally expect highs in the low to mid 50s except a bit cooler near the coast and over the southern Poconos.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The high to our north begins to retreat Monday night into Tuesday before a weakening cold front begins to approach the area from the west Tuesday night. Meanwhile there will also be some moisture spinning westward into the area from the stalled low out over the Atlantic. The upshot of this is that skies look to become mainly cloudy by Tuesday though it should stay dry through the daylight hours. Expect highs for Tuesday once again mainly in the low to mid 50s except a bit cooler near the coast and over the southern Poconos, similar to Monday. Some rain showers look to be possible across the area beginning Tuesday night though any precipitation should be pretty light. The best chances for precip will be over NE PA into northern NJ. Expect lows Tuesday night mostly in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Conditions look to potentially become more unsettled by Wednesday into Thursday. The weakening cold front discussed in the short term section looks to move slowly eastward through the area into Wednesday with the potential for a coastal low to develop along it and move northward near or off the coast by Thursday. As a result of this set up, some showers are likely with the front for Wednesday, especially over eastern PA into northern NJ. The southerly winds ahead of the front will also bring warmer temperatures for Wednesday with highs generally ranging from around 55 up to 60, except cooler over the southern Poconos. By Wednesday night into Thursday, the best chances for rain will shift towards the coast due to the coastal low where we currently have POPs in the 60 to 70 percent range. We should see a drying trend through Friday as the coastal low departs. Then by Saturday a warm front could bring a few showers returning to the area. Confidence is low on this though with POPs only in the 15 to 20 percent range at this time. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Through today....VFR. Northerly winds mainly around 10 to 15 gusting up to 25 knots through this morning before winds diminish in the afternoon, especially in terms of gusts. There will also be a slight veering of the wind with time from NNW early this morning to NNE by this afternoon. High confidence. Tonight....VFR with northeast winds generally around 5 to 10 knots except increasing to 10 to 15 knots by Monday morning at ACY. High confidence. Monday...Mainly VFR with northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. High confidence. Outlook... Tuesday-Tuesday night...Sub VFR conditions are possible with a chance of showers. Northeast to east winds 5-10 knots, with gusts 15- 20 knots possible, especially Tuesday. Low confidence. Wednesday-Wednesday night...Sub VFR conditions are possible with a chance of showers. Winds shift to southeast then south during the day Wednesday, then shift to west and northwest during the night. Wind speeds mainly 5-10 knots. Low confidence. Thursday...Sub VFR conditions are possible with a chance of rain, especially at ACY and MIV. NNW winds 10-15 knots with gusts 15-20 knots. Low confidence. && .MARINE...
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545 AM...The Gale Warning was cancelled for the Delaware Bay as winds have diminished below Gale force. An SCA is in effect here though until noon. The Gale Warning remains in effect for the ocean waters offshore Sandy Hook NJ to Cape May NJ through 2 PM this afternoon and through 6 PM this evening for the ocean waters from Cape May NJ to Fenwick Island DE. NW winds 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt are likely through daybreak with seas 7 to 10 feet. Heading into the day Sunday expect north winds around 20-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt during the morning. Winds will diminish through the afternoon below gale force. However Small Craft Advisory conditions look to continue tonight due to northeast winds 20 to 25 gusting 25 to 30 knots and seas 6 to 10 feet. Outlook... Monday through Tuesday night...An extended period of Small Craft Advisory conditions looks to continue. Wednesday-Wednesday night...While winds could drop below advisory levels, seas may remain above Small Craft Advisory levels. Thursday...Winds and waves may both briefly drop below advisory levels, before increasing again Thursday night.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The coastal low that brought the heavy rain Saturday has departed to the north and east but a second low has developed along its cold front and is located off the southeast coast. This low will strengthen while moving north and then lingering out over the Atlantic. This will result in an extended duration of long period swells and rough surf impacting the Atlantic coast. Surge values of 2-3 feet are currently forecast by Monday. This will result in widespread minor coastal flooding with potential for fairly widespread moderate flooding along the oceanfront and Delaware side of the Delaware Bay. Thus, we have issued Coastal Flood Watches starting early Monday, but right now the highest tide appears to be Monday evening`s. Some guidance has moderate flooding lingering several cycles, but for now have cut off the watch at 2 PM Tuesday. Coastal flooding is not anticipated along the eastern shore of Maryland. However, strong northerly winds will result in tidal anomalies near 1 to 1.5 feet below normal. Water levels are forecast to reach their lowest point at the midday low tide today around 1 to 1.5 feet below MLLW. Mariners should use caution navigating during low water conditions to avoid running aground. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for NJZ020-022>027. Coastal Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Monday night for NJZ012>014. DE...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for DEZ002>004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ430-431. Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>453. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ454-455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons AVIATION...Fitzsimmons MARINE...Fitzsimmons TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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