Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 160134 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 934 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A RIDGE FROM THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND HAVE HAD TO INCREASE POPS N AND W AND KEEP THEM HIGH EVERYWHERE ELSE. HOPEFULLY, THINGS SHOULD START TO WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH TEMPS DROPPING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE CDFNT, ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SLEET FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W, AND SNOW OVER THE EXTREME N AND W, WHERE WE HAVE RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. YES, ITS MID-APRIL! WILL GRADUALLY TAPER POPS THRU THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MORE SO BY MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER. THIS IS A SLOWER TREND THEN ORIGINALLY FCST. THE NEXT CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES. THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. AS SUCH, GUIDANCE CAME IN LOWER FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND IN DECREASING THE LOWS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE FREEZE WARNING NOW INCLUDES THE NJ COASTAL ZONES. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE WARNING WILL SEE A FREEZE AS WELL, HOWEVER, IT IS STILL EARLIER THAN THE MEDIAN LAST FREEZE DATE, SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RECOVERY. THUS, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S. STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MEX AND MAV GUIDANCE && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WE EXPECT A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE A IT WARMER THAN TUE NIGHT...BUT STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE/DYNAMICS TO BRING IN SOME CLOUDS AND TOUCH OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS...BUT WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS ONLY AT THE CHC LEVEL FOR NOW. OVERALL...SAT WILL NOT BE TOO BAD A DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY. MORE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THIS HIGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON NIGHT AND LASTING INTO NEXT TUE. WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE WPC FOR THE MOST PART AND GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR THE SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TAF SITES AND EVERYONE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NW. HOWEVER, ENOUGH RAIN IS TILL AROUND THAT MOST SITES REMAIN MVFR OR AT LEAST STILL HAVE THAT POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE IMPROVEMENT TREND IS SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST, SO HAVE PUSHED IT BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, THE TREND IS STILL THERE AND SHOULD BECOME VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STAY BREEZY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER 09Z. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED. FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MOSTLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NWLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND CFP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. SCA CONDITIONS BOTH FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS COULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...A PERIOD OF MOSTLY LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN...AND SUB-SCA ON DEL BAY. SAT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-070- 071-101>104-106. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-101>104-106. NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>027. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-015>023-027. DE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>003. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR DEZ001>003. MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA

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