Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 150434 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1134 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to influence our weather tonight and Wednesday before moving off the coast. A cold front approaching from the northwest is forecast to arrive on Thursday followed by high pressure for Friday. Another cold front is expected to pass through our region on Saturday night with high pressure anticipated in its wake for Sunday and the early part of the new week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Overnight...monitoring sprinkles offshore and suspect that they will remain there... second time within about 10 days that we`ve seen this at night. Patchy fog-frosty still possible where there is still a narrowing westward moving sliver of clear sky. 02z/15 NARRE doesn`t look very useful in its current fcst having reversed the reality of what is occurring (lower cigs coast and VFR cigs interior). Wednesday...Its a model rh time section battle between the NAM and GFS. An inversion near 800 MB caps moisture below it and overall am thinking the cooler more moist NAM will prevail. So this forecast will be a blend of the 00z/15 GFS/NAM MOS but LOW confidence on having made the correct decision on more clouds than sun. For now...am fcstg temps no higher than 2F above the blended GFS/GGEM/NAM 18z 2m temps. Light east to southeast winds. If there is a shower along the coast, it should be this Wednesday morning - midday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Cloudy and relatively mild with nearly steady temps, possibly rising a bit during the night along and east of I-95. Showers ahead of a cold front are expected to develop, mainly after 06z/16...mostly likely toward 09z/16. This forecast will be a 50 50 blend of the 00z/15 GFS/NAM MOS. Amounts .05 to 0.25".
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Showers may linger into Thursday morning, especially in the northern and eastern parts of our forecast area prior to a CFP. High pressure is forecast to build across our region from west to east on Thursday night and Friday, bringing dry weather conditions. A strong cold front is forecast to approach from the west on Friday night and Saturday. There is an increasing chance of showers beginning late on Friday night. It appears as though temperatures should increase slowly as the cloud cover lowers and thickens. As a result, we are not anticipating any freezing or frozen precipitation at the onset. The cold front is forecast to push through our region on Saturday night. Another blast of cold air is expected to follow for Sunday and Monday. We continue to use the low end of guidance for temperatures. Cold advection stratocumulus is anticipated, especially on Sunday. Also, scattered snow showers and flurries are possible in our northern counties, mainly in the elevated terrain. Temperatures may warm a bit on Tuesday as the center of the high moves out to sea.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Overnight...VFR CIGS generally based near 4000 ft with spotty MVFR CIGS along the coast. Light north to northeast wind. The narrowing sliver of clear sky as seen on satellite imagery is heading west through e MD e PA and nw NJ. Wednesday...Confidence lowers on the scenario but we are are not using the NARRE which is off to a poor start in our forecast area. Reliance will be on a visually blended GFS/NAM Tsection. That will mean generally VFR conditions...probably cigs based near 4 or 5000 ft with a possibly MVFR CIG here and there, especially late in the day when MVFR CIGS may become much more widespread. Light northeast wind to start becoming southeast this Wednesday afternoon. Confidence in CIG forecast height is well below average, and for winds is above average. Wednesday night...VFR or MVFR CIGS to start, then degrading to probable IFR conds toward 09z/16 in showers stratus fog with stratus fog contg even after showers end vcnty Philly westward near 11z (no mixing). Confidence above average on sub MVFR conditions late at night. Light southeast wind becomes light southwest or west toward 11z/16. OUTLOOK... Thursday morning...Mainly VFR. However, rain showers may reduce conditions to MVFR at times. Thursday afternoon through Friday evening...Mainly VFR. Friday night...VFR lowering to MVFR in spots. A chance of showers after midnight. Saturday and Saturday night...Mainly MVFR and VFR with showers likely. Snow showers are possible around KRDG and KABE late on Saturday night. Sunday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Small craft advisory was extended for the Atlantic waters from Cape May to Fenwick Island through 6 pm Wednesday, as seas will likely build again overnight and stay elevated through Wednesday afternoon. Models are also showing seas building northward to much of the New Jersey coastal waters overnight and Wednesday morning, so have extended the small craft advisory northward to this region as well, though this begins at midnight and ends at 1 pm Wednesday. Winds may briefly gust to 25 kts, especially off the Delaware coast, but the main threat will be high seas. There is a change of sprinkles or a light shower through much of the period, generally from the southern New Jersey coast southward. Wednesday night...No marine headlines anticipated. OUTLOOK... Thursday morning...No marine headlines are anticipated. Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...Northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected. A few hours of gale force gusts are possible on Thursday evening. Friday afternoon and Friday night...No marine headlines are anticipated. Saturday and Saturday evening...Gale force gusts from the southwest are possible. Late Saturday night and Sunday...Gale force gusts from the west and northwest are possible.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ451>453. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ454-455. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...CMS/Drag/Gaines 1135 Short Term...CMS/Drag 1135 Long Term...Iovino Aviation...CMS/Drag/Gaines/Iovino 1135 Marine...CMS/Drag/Gaines/Iovino 1135

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