Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 190121 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 921 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Jose will continue to move northward well east of our area through Wednesday. It will then move towards New England while weakening Thursday and Friday. What is left of JOse will remain well north and east of our area this weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic area and remain into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The Tropical Storm Watch that was in effect for the land areas of New Jersey and Delaware was cancelled earlier. Please continue to pay attention to the forecast, as local effect from Hurricane Jose will still be felt, especially along the coasts. Although it will be windy, especially along the coast, we no longer expect sustained Tropical Storm Force winds. Radar is showing the outer edges of Jose at the extreme edge of radar coverage across the Atlantic. These outer showers will progress towards the area overnight. The winds will increase some during the night mainly closest to the coast, however the main wind increase is not expected until during Tuesday. Only small changes were needed for the temperature and dew point numbers. Low temperatures are mostly a MOS/continuity blend, and with the idea of cloudiness through the night we did not lower below guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The main focus through Tuesday night will be the northward movement of Hurricane Jose. It is forecast to be moving over cooler water within an area of stronger southwesterly shear, thus gradually weakening it. The center of this storm is still expected to parallel the East Coast well offshore, however the overall wind field is larger as it gains latitude. The model guidance overall has diminished the wind threat especially for the land areas under a tropical storm watch. Since frictional effects will diminish the wind quite a bit from the coast inland, we are expecting the strongest winds right along the coast. In addition as the center tracks northward, the winds will start to turn from the northeast to the north-northwest by late Tuesday. Regarding the shower potential, much of the guidance still showing an area of showers well west of the center. This is within an area of potentially developing deformation as a zone of strengthening convergence focuses shower development. There continues to be differences between the guidance on just how far west this area gets during Tuesday and then shifts northeastward Tuesday night. The main showers should be closer to the coast as frictional convergence might enhance the lift for a time. We therefore trimmed the PoPs back across the western areas (tightened up the gradient some), with the highest PoPs (likely to categorical) across the eastern areas for a time. This system looks to start slowing down though during the course of Tuesday night as the steering flow weakens, leaving the center of the storm sitting well to our east. This should maintain at least some showers and wind all the way through Tuesday night especially for our eastern zones. It is good to note though that some guidance has little rain on land with this system. High temperatures are a MOS/continuity with minor tweaks, and we are expecting a cooler day given the anticipated cloud cover, onshore wind and at least some showers. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Any of the remaining effects with Jose will be ending across the northern and eastern parts of the area Wednesday morning. This will be mainly in the form of showers and gusty winds. Pops for Wednesday will be in the chc range across ern NJ and these will decrease thru the day. Gusty winds up to 25 mph will be possible during the morning across these ern areas, but then they will decrease thru the day. Over the rest of the area, fair weather with slightly above normal temperatures expected for Wed. A prolonged period of nice weather is expected for Thursday and into the weekend as high pressure builds at the sfc and aloft. Generally a rain-free period with temperatures near normal, or perhaps a degree or two above. Patchy overnight fog is possible, mostly in rural areas. Rather low confid fcst next Monday. Its possible that enough low level moisture may be around for some showers, a slight chc was kept in the grids for that period attm. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...MVFR lowering to IFR ceilings. A band of showers should start to move onshore toward daybreak, however the timing and coverage is less certain. Northeast winds 5-8 knots at KABE and KRDG, and 10-15 knots at the other terminals with the highest winds at KACY. Tuesday...IFR/MVFR conditions mostly due to ceilings, which may improve to near VFR for a time in the afternoon especially west of KACY and KMIV. Some showers are expected to occur, however the timing and especially coverage is less certain. We only included showers with restrictions for KACY and KMIV for now with a VCSH for the I-95 corridor terminals. Tuesday night..MVFR/IFR with some showers especially from near KPHL on eastward, should improve to VFR for some areas. North to northwest winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, with much less wind near and north and west of KPHL. OUTLOOK... Wed thru Saturday...VFR except for patchy morning fog.
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&& .MARINE... Northeasterly winds will increase through late Tuesday as Hurricane Jose slowly weakens and parallels the East Coast well offshore. There is the potential still of 35-40 knot winds especially during Tuesday into Tuesday night, however this may be less now especially for lower Delaware Bay. For now, any changes to the headlines will be made after the 4 PM NHC conference call. Seas continue to be slow to build, therefore delayed this some more at least into this evening. A more significant increase in the seas on the ocean will be later tonight and Tuesday with the arrival of stronger winds. A high surf advisory remains in effect starting this evening. OUTLOOK... Wed thru Saturday...Fair weather expected. Low end SCA conditions for seas on the ocean expected. Rip Currents... High risk of rip currents continues due to building swells/waves from Hurricane Jose through at least mid week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A coastal flood advisory has been issued starting this evening. See the CFW product for more details. A coastal flood warning may be needed for tomorrow night. Coastal flooding is expected with the Atlantic coast high tide cycles tonight through Wednesday due to the passage of Hurricane Jose. A period of east to northeast winds due to Hurricane Jose will force water to build along the shores. In addition, there is a new moon on Wednesday, September 20th, so astronomical tide levels will be running high. For tonight`s high tide, spotty minor flooding is expected for much of the NJ coast. With the NE flow, the minor flooding might be a little bit more widespread across our DE waters. No flooding is expected on the Delaware River nor Chesapeake. For Tuesday morning, minor tidal flooding is expected along both the NJ and DE coasts. Spotty minor may work it`s way up the Delaware River. Nothing is expected across the Chesapeake. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the high tide cycles Tuesday night, as minor to moderate flooding is expected for the ocean-facing zones of DE and NJ as well as the lower DE Bay. Spotty minor to minor flooding is expected further up the DE Bay and the Delaware River. Once again, coastal flooding is not expected across the Chesapeake. && .EQUIPMENT... KSMQ metar is not being sent out attm. Problem is being looked into. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NJZ012>014-020>027. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016. DE...Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for DEZ002>004. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430. Gale Warning from 2 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ431.
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&& $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Gorse/MPS/PO Short Term...Gorse Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara Marine...Gorse/O`Hara Tides/Coastal Flooding... Equipment...

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