Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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439 FXUS61 KPHI 240952 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 552 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary and low pressure moving along it will remain over our area this morning, but then move offshore later this afternoon. A second low will follow tonight and Tuesday as the boundary sinks slowly to the south. High pressure is forecast to build down from the northwest for the middle part of the week. A cold front from the northwest is anticipated to arrive on Friday. The front is expected to move slowly to our southeast over the weekend as areas of low pressure travel along it. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Significant thunderstorm wind damage occurred overnight in the Stevensville area of Kent Island in Queen Anne`s County, Maryland. While official decisions regarding a storm survey have yet to be made, a Public Information Statement should be issued after further coordination with local emergency management late this morning. An upper trough and sfc front combined with ample moisture is producing rounds of showers and sct tstms across much of the region early this morning. Lighter showers are across the extreme north part of the CWA. Excessive rains have resulted in FFW in many areas overnight. See the LSR for all of the latest reports. Event is still in progress, so busy night for all here. Later, the front will lift across the region and the rains should end from SW to NE later this morning. The FF watch will be extended until noon for much of NJ and parts of ern PA, but dropped elsewhere with the heaviest rains probably over in the W/SW areas early this morning. The back of the boundary will bring more sct tstms to the area later this afternoon. Temperatures today will be very warm with upper 80s and low 90s over the region. Clouds will gradually thin later this morning and into the afternoon. Winds will be mostly S/SE early, then turn SW/W this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... System begins to move away and the showers associated with the cold front will end from W to E early tonight. Drier air will begin to arrive N/W and will spread over the rest of the area later Tuesday. Lows will be in the low 70s S/E and low 60s N/W. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... No changes overnight. The words below are from Sunday afternoon AFD. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday night. Based on the latest model guidance, drying may be delayed a bit. It now appears as though the mid level short wave trough from the northwest will not arrive until late Tuesday. As a result, we will keep some clouds and a slight chance of showers for Tuesday. Dry air is anticipated to follow the mid level trough for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on Thursday and it should pass through our region on Friday. We will indicate an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms at that time. The forward progress of the front is expected to slow over the weekend as waves of low pressure travel along the boundary. We will continue to carry a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and Sunday, but that could change if the front starts to trend toward being even less progressive. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable during the period from Monday night through Sunday. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Challenging fcsts for the morning with widespread poor flying conditions across the area and sct showers/downpours and a few tstms too. Overall, expect improvement this morning, but timing in the tafs is low confid with a variety of mesoscale factors affecting conditions. Winds will be mostly SE early, then turn SW/W by late morning. There will probably be more showers/sct tstms this afternoon across the area, again low confid in timing, basically used PROB30s from guidance. Frequent Amds expected. OUTLOOK.... Tuesday...MVFR and IFR conditions possible in the early morning, then VFR. Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Thursday night and Friday...MVFR and IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Conditions on the waters still coming up short of SCA conditions attm. Seas are around 4 ft however and winds have gusted around 20 kts also. Wind directions have mostly been E or SE on the north side of the front. The front will move northward today and winds will become S or SW behind that. We will still hold the SCA flag for now with the overall conditions remaining about the same into the morning. Scattered showers and tstms with locally higher winds and seas around tstms. Showers coverage will diminish later this morning, be a few more tstms possible later this afternoon and into the evening. OUTLOOK... Tuesday through Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated. RIP CURRENTS... A low risk remains is expected for today for rip currents with a possible moderate risk along the Monmouth and northern Ocean County beaches. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There was minor tidal flooding Sunday night along the coastal areas and water levels will be elevated again tonight. It is not clear that the levels will be enough to issue another Advisory at this point. We will let the dayshift make the call with regards to that. && .EQUIPMENT... Dew point readings at KDOV continue to measure too high compared to surrounding locations and should be treated as unrepresentative of the area. Hamburg NJ transmitter is off the air. No known rts. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for PAZ061-062-070-071- 103>106. NJ...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NJZ001-007>010-012- 013-015-017>019. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Iovino/O`Hara Marine...Iovino/O`Hara Tides/Coastal Flooding... Equipment...

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