Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 211016 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 616 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper trough and front will affect the weather today and tonight. High pressure will build in for Thursday and Thursday night. A low pressure system and slow moving front will bring unsettled conditions for Friday and Saturday. High pressure will build across the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure over the Atlantic will influence our weather today keeping our region in a warm southwest flow. A mid level short wave trough was located over the eastern Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley early this morning. The feature will move eastward with its axis forecast to pass overhead during the midday hours. Our region remained on the northwest edge of a band of high and mid level clouds early this morning. Showers were affecting southeastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and far southeastern Delaware. Then the clouds and showers should drift southeastward during the balance of the morning. We are anticipating a mostly to partly sunny sky for today. The mid level short wave trough along with the development of marginal instability due to daytime heating may touch off isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mixed layer CAPE values are forecast to rise into the 300 to 600 J/kg range. We will continue to mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. While most locations should remain dry, it seems as though the best potential for the isolated precipitation will be in the Poconos and the Lehigh Valley into northern and central New Jersey, and perhaps on the upper Delmarva. The wind should be from the southwest around 6 to 12 MPH and maximum temperatures are anticipated to favor the 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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A mid level ridge is forecast to build toward our region from the west tonight bringing dry weather conditions. A weak and dissipating cold front is expected to drop into our region from the northwest late tonight possibly accompanied by a few clouds. A light southwest wind is expected to become northwest. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the middle and upper 50s in the Poconos and in far northern New Jersey to the middle and upper 60s on the coastal plain.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Weak high pressure will be across the region Thursday and the beginning of Thursday night, so overall these two periods will feature dry weather across most areas. A couple evening showers/tstms could develop across the southern Poconos, so we have some light chc pops for then. It will be very warm and humid Thursday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 across the areas from the lehihg Valley and central NJ and south. Highs in the souther Poconos and the higher elevations of north NJ will be mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s. A developing upper trough over the Great Lakes and several weak disturbances will affect the area from Friday thru Saturday night. Pops Friday will be in the low likely category across the N/W areas while they taper to chc pops elsewhere. Pops during the other periods will be more chancy favoring the wrn areas Fri night and the southern counties Sat and Sat night. It`s possible that some of the moisture from TS Cindy could arrive Sat, so it`s possible that pops across the srn areas could go higher than presently advertised. Temperatures will be above normal Fri, but moderate back to near normal for Saturday. There are no big systems in the later part of the long term. Still, several weak impulses and fronts could offer the possibility of a few showers both Sunday and Monday. We have 20-30pct pops for those time frames. Temperatures will be mostly near normal. Dry weather is expected Tue. Since an upper trough will be deepening over the area, temperatures will be below normal.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with areas of high and mid level clouds this morning giving way to mainly scattered cloud cover for this afternoon and tonight. There may be isolated showers and thunderstorms in the area this afternoon. However, their potential is too low to include in the TAFs. A light southwest wind this morning is anticipated to increase around 10 knots during the daylight hours. A light southwest wind this evening is expected to become northwest overnight. OUTLOOK... Thu/Thu night...VFR expected. Fri thru Sat night...Mostly VFR, but a few sct showers and tstms could bring lower conditions. Sun...Mostly VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure over the Atlantic will influence the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware into this evening with a weak cold front arriving from the northwest late tonight. A southwest wind at 5 to 15 knots is expected for today and this evening. The wind should become northwest at 5 to 10 knots late tonight. Wave heights on our ocean waters will favor the 2 to 4 foot range and waves on Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less. OUTLOOK... Thu/Thu night...Sub-SCA conditions. Fri thru Sat night...Sub-SCA on Del bay. Marginal SCA seas on the ocean. Few Showers and Tstms. Sunday...Sub-SCA expected. RIP CURRENTS... We will continue with the moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for today along the coast of Delaware and New Jersey. We are expecting a 6 second southerly wind swell on top of a long period (around 13 to 14 second) southeasterly ground swell. Similar conditions are anticipated tonight into Thursday.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Very high astronomical tides are expected in association with the new moon on Friday. That, combined with a brief period of on shore flow on Thursday could result in minor coastal flooding with the Thursday afternoon and evening high tide primarily for the Atlantic coastal areas and the shores of the Delaware Bay. Minor coastal flooding may continue with the Friday afternoon and evening high tide. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Iovino/O`Hara Marine...Iovino/O`Hara Tides/Coastal Flooding...Staff

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