Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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068 FXUS61 KPHI 222220 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 620 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area later on Friday into Friday night. High pressure will build across the northeast over the weekend into early next week. A warm front is expected to lift north of the area around Tuesday, while a cold front remains to our west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... High pressure off the coast will move away from the area tonight. This will keep quiet and dry weather conditions over the region. Temps will be at or slightly above normal values. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A wk front will pass to the n late Friday as large high pressure builds down from Canada. This front may trigger some showers or even a thunderstorm mainly over nrn areas late Fri aftn. There is some disagreement in the guid wrt this feature. THe NAM/WRF brings the precip further s, even to the 1-95 corridor. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is virtually dry. For now, the GFS seems like a good compromise, keeping the precip over the n. Temps will be more summer-like in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front will fully push south of the area Friday night. There will be a slight chance of showers, mainly across the northern third of the area, as a short wave/vorticity impulse slides across the area and interacts with the front. High pressure will then build across the northeast over the weekend and into Monday of next week. This will bring cooler weather to the area, along with dry conditions. There are differences between the GFS and ECMWF as we move into Tuesday, as the GFS lifts a warm front through the area, while the ECMWF moves a cold front across the area. We decided to stay closer to WPC and continuity. This would keep the cold front to our west through the end of the week, before it possibly reaches the area Thursday into Friday. There will remain a slight chance of showers each day from Tuesday through the end of the week, although it will only be 20 percent at this time. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conds are expected thru most, if not all of the TAF pd. Thru the remainder of the aftn into the evening and erly overnight VFR is expected. Then, there cud be some fog ad even low clouds that cud bring MVFR, mainly to srn areas (KMIV/KACY) twd mrng, before a return to VFR. Some guid is suggesting a more widespread low clouds/fog event tonight, but am going with a more optimistic fcst and will watch to see if later fcsts need to be made lower. Wind will be light e to ne today, genly 5 to 10 kts, then light overnight and more wly on Fri, but still light genly under 10 kts. OUTLOOK... Friday night-Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Have canceled the small craft advisory as all available observations are well below 5 feet, and seas are forecast to decrease slightly through the evening hours. Wind gusts near 20 kt are possible through the overnight hours, and seas should stay in the 2 to 4 foot range tonight and tomorrow. However, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria. OUTLOOK... Friday night-Saturday...Conditions may approach Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds may gust around 20 to 25 knots at times behind a cold frontal passage Friday night into Saturday morning. Seas could approach 4-5 feet during the day Saturday as well. Saturday night-Tuesday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through. Winds may gust around 20 knots at times. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Robertson Near Term...Nierenberg Short Term...Nierenberg Long Term...Robertson Aviation...Nierenberg/Robertson Marine...Johnson/Nierenberg/Robertson

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