Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 190240 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 940 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, ONLY SOME MINOR HOURLY GRID CHANGES NEEDED. OVERALL, A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT AHEAD AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH BEFORE DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AROUND 10 MPH. SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH AND ERN AREAS AND THE LOW 30S MOST OTHER AREAS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN DURING THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TO COME ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 00Z FRI. MEANWHILE... A PRIMARY S/WV OVER QUEBEC TRANSITING THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...THEN A SECONDARY W/WV CAUSES A WEAKER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY... WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BY SATURDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENTERS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMES ASHORE IN THE PAC NORTHWEST. THESE SEPARATE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO PHASE...LEADING TO A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THUS A WARMING TREND. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT EAST CONUS TROUGH REMAINS... WITH ANOTHER S/WV PROGGED TO ENTER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST..TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN RECENT RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS LONGER THAN MODELED /ESPECIALLY GIVEN PREDICTABILITY IS LOW/ THIS WOULD LEAD DELAY TIMING OF THE DOWNSTREAM STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID-WEST. MEANWHILE...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENS ARE ALSO TRENDING STRONGER W/THE PHASED SOLUTION OVER THE MID-WEST...LEADING TO A WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE ERN CONUS. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL LOCK IN THE COLD AIR W/TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS ON FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PRESENTS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME... WHICH MAY BEGIN INITIALLY AS FROZEN PRECIP...ESP IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO SW BY AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WED AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...VFR. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR. SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA. && .MARINE... WE HAVE KEPT THE GALE WARNING IN PLACE THIS EVENING AS THERE REMAINS SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. WE EXPECT THE WIND GUSTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, EVEN WHEN GALE FORCE DIMINISH. OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA LIKELY IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AGAIN W/POST-FRONTAL W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO, CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES. WE HAVE ALSO INCLUDED OUR FORECAST NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AS AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON ARRIVES. 11/19 RECORD LOWS: 11/19 FORECAST LOWS: ACY 18 1936 ACY 17 PHL 20 1936 PHL 21 ILG 15 1936 ILG 19 ABE 11 1924 ABE 17 TTN 17 1936 TTN 19 GED 20 1959 GED 18 RDG 18 1936 RDG 17 MPO 10 1933 MPO 11 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...FRANCK AVIATION...FRANCK/ROBERTSON/O`HARA MARINE...FRANCK/ROBERTSON/O`HARA CLIMATE...STAFF

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