Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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734
FGUS71 KPHI 040638
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-182130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
130 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 3

THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE
RIVER FLOODING.

IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD, FEBRUARY 4-18, 2016.

IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL RETURN TO
ABOUT NORMAL AFTER THIS CURRENT ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ENDS.

NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.

CURRENT FLOODING - POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ANY
WATER LEVELS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WILL FALL BELOW IT TODAY AND FRIDAY.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - VARIABLE, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. BETWEEN 3.0 AND 4.0 INCHES OF LIQUID HAVE BEEN
RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE
FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE WATER SUPPLY TAB).

SNOW COVER - BELOW NORMAL. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER
EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER
THE SEASONAL INTEREST TAB) OR WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE
NATIONAL ANALYSIS TAB).

RIVER ICE - BELOW NORMAL. THE ICE THAT DEVELOPED THE LAST TWO WEEKS
IS SOFTENING AND DISSIPATING. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT
WEEK TWO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS WEEK ONE. AN INCREASE
IN RIVER ICE IS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.

STREAMFLOW - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA IS
AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE
MONITORING CHARTS (LONG-TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX) FROM
NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/REGIONAL_
MONITORING/PALMER.GIF AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM BELOW
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN
THE AREA ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL SLOWLY TRACK OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE OUT TO SEA DURING FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT
APPEARS JUST THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION AS
THE LOW BRUSHES BY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE AND REDEVELOP OFF OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL RETURN TO ABOUT NORMAL AFTER
THIS CURRENT ROUND OF FLOODING SUBSIDES.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH FEBRUARY 18, 2016:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...RETURNING TO ABOUT NORMAL AFTER THIS
                          CURRENT ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING SUBSIDES.
CURRENT FLOODING...POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL
                   AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
                   PENNSYLVANIA.
RECENT PRECIPITATION...VARIABLE, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
                       ABOVE NORMAL
SNOW COVER...BELOW NORMAL
RIVER ICE...BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
GROUND WATER...VARIABLE, BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL

$$

KRUZDLO



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