Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FGUS71 KPHI 191916
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-022130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 7

THIS IS THE SEVENTH IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE
RIVER FLOODING.

IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD, MARCH 19 TO
APRIL 2, 2015.

IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NORMAL.

NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.

CURRENT FLOODING - RARITAN BASIN.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-DELAWARE, LEHIGH,
AND PASSAIC BASINS. NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE RARITAN,
SCHUYLKILL, AND LOWER DELAWARE BASINS. BETWEEN 2.0 AND 4.0 INCHES
OF LIQUID HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE
WATER SUPPLY TAB).

SNOW COVER - NORMAL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UP TO SIX INCHES ON
THE GROUND NORTH OF ROUTE 80. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
SNOWPACK ARE UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES. SOME ADDITIONAL MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT MUCH
OF THIS PREDICTED NEW SNOW WILL MELT WITH LITTLE IMPACT IN JUST A
FEW DAYS. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE SEASONAL INTEREST
TAB) OR WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE NATIONAL ANALYSIS TAB).

RIVER ICE - NORMAL, EXCEPT STILL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
MID-DELAWARE BASIN. OVERALL, THERE IS MUCH LESS ICE THAN TWO WEEKS
AGO.

STREAMFLOW - VARIABLE. NEAR NORMAL NORTH TO ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH.
REAL TIME WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY BY VISITING HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING
CHARTS FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.
SHTML AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN
THE AREA ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY AND MOVE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA AGAIN SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 8 TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) - NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING IS CALLED AHPS, ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE. ONE COMPONENT OF AHPS IS THE GENERATION OF
PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS
(RIVER LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE, EXTENT AND CONDITION OF SNOWPACK)
ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.

FOR THIS OUTLOOK, THE AHPS TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE
DELAWARE, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER SYSTEMS. FOURTEEN DAY
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS GENERATED FOR THESE BASINS SHOW THAT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
HISTORICALLY OBSERVED. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AHPS PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS DO NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NORMAL.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 2, 2015:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...NORMAL
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
SNOW COVER...NORMAL
RIVER ICE...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE...ABOUT NORMAL
GROUND WATER...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NEAR NORMAL TO NORMAL
AHPS...NEAR NORMAL

$$

KRUZDLO



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