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000
FXUS65 KPIH 150856
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
256 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STARTING THE PROCESS INTO A PATTERN CHANGE. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS
TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AND SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IDAHO. AS
PACIFIC TROF MOVES TOWARD THE COAST...IDAHO WILL GET INTO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. GENERAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND AS THE TROF MOVES EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
OREGON AND NEVADA. WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BEGIN A
COOLING TREND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE AND SNAKE PLAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY AND VERY CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER TROF REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXPECT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS TREND TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. GFS IS QUICKER
MOVING THE LOW EAST. FOR NOW BEGAN TO WARM IT UP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEPT SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
MTNS AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF. TSTMS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS AT KSUN...AND MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPIH
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE PAC NW TODAY WILL
INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE WET...COOL...AND BREEZY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$