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000
FXUS65 KPIH 141956
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE CROSSING
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR THE IDAHO AND UTAH BORDER THIS EVENING. FOR
WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET AREA SHOWING
SOME TENDENCY TO DIG A LITTLE SOUTH AS THEY MOVE INLAND...ALSO
SOME SPLITTING FLOW IS EVIDENT ABOUT 150-155W ENTERING THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AT LEAST ONE DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN IDAHO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MULTIPLE MINOR WAVES WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ADDITIONAL SPLITTING AND
DIGGING OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL CROSS ABOUT
NEAR RENO NEVADA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY OVER WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL
AND STORM CELLS MAY PRODUCE .01 TO .05 INCH PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER ON FRIDAY AND THIS COULD BE THE WETTER
DAY WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH PRECIPITATION FROM INDIVIDUAL CELLS.
FORE CAST DIFFICULTY IS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CONTINUES TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS COULD BE A CHALLENGE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. AIR OFF THE PACIFIC
WILL MODIFY TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 DEGREES COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. RS

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF CWA FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY TRIMMING
THEM AFTERWARDS. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A SECOND IMPULSE OF ENERGY
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...A BIT WEAKER THAN THE 00Z RUN WHICH
HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE UT/ID BORDER. GFS DEVELOPS A SPLIT
FLOW FROM ALBERTA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY WHICH MOVES
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON MONDAY. IT ALSO DEEPENS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE PATTERN ALOFT HEADING INTO
TUESDAY.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY. NAM12/WRF HINTING AT
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS THAT MAY IMPACT KBYI AND KPIH OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WE REMAIN DRY IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  HINSBERGER


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$