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000
FXUS65 KPIH 230401
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1001 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING HAVE INCHED LOWER IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AREA SOUTH OF BURLEY...CONVECTION MAY HAVE A
LITTLE HAND HERE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME MIDDLE 30
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6000 AND 7500 FEET ELEVATION. SPOTTER NEAR
MALTA REPORTED LIGHT SNOW IN THE AIR. PRECIPITATION IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOKS TO BE GROWING WEAKER TO THE SOUTH AND MAY ONLY LAST
ANOTHER 2 OR 3 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY MAY BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NE INTO BC. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY FALL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. SW WINDS ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FCST AREA ON THE DRY SIDE DUE TO THE
DOWNSLOPE. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE HOURS. PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
NORTH FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL AGAIN ON THU...BUT WILL MODERATE FRI AND SAT AS THE
UPPER LOW LOSES INFLUENCE. TEMPS THU AND FRI MORNING MAY FALL INTO
THE MID 30S IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. HEDGES

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS BOTH SHOWING A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM.   GFS DRIVES THROUGH UPPER TROFS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE
THE EUROPEAN LEANS MORE TOWARD SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY BUT WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BEST PERIODS.   GFS
DRIER ON SUNDAY WHILE EUROPEAN DRIEST ON MONDAY.   FOR NOW KEPT IN
THE CHANCE DAILY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND 50S AND 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
GK

AVIATION...15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
HAVE PERSISTED TODAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DYING OUT WITH STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND COLD
FRONT WEAKENING.   WINDS AT SNAKE PLAIN SITES SHOULD BE MORE IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ON THURSDAY.   WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR SUN AND
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$