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000
FXUS65 KPIH 200859
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
259 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH A COLD CORE ALOFT GENERATING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SLOW TO
MOVE...BUT BY TUE MORNING SHOULD HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
END WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE ID-WY BORDER BY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE KICKER FOR THIS
FIRST LOW THEN MOVES ONSHORE BY TUE NIGHT.THIS IS AN INTENSE LOW
THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT IN THE
SAWTOOTHS AND TETONS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN MONTANA...WITH ONLY THE MONTANA
BORDER REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING SIGNIFICANT POPS ON TUE
NIGHT/WED. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT EASTERN
IDAHO WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WIND BY WED AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL
THEN WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT TO MODERATE. WITH THE CLEARER
SKIES TUE...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE A CHANCE TO GET ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE PREVIOUS
THREE DAYS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT WILL BE COOL AGAIN WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH WITH THE CLOSED LOW COULD MEAN SNOW ABOVE 8500
FEET ELEVATION...BUT SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE INTENSE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU
NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. THU HAS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENTER
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GEM
STATE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ENOUGH TO LIFT THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN CLEARER SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH A LOWERED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THU NIGHT. THE NEXT
UPSTREAM LOW COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SUN AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
MAINLY A THREAT IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...REMNANTS OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS BUT EXPECT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SLIGHTLY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER
THE STRONGER CELLS. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY...BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO NEXT UPPER LOW DEEPENING
OVER THE PAC NW COAST...MAY BE MOST VULNERABLE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TUESDAY. THE PAC NW LOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...THEN THE CENTER FILLS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. EASTERN IDAHO REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH CONTINUED TROUGH CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$