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000
FXUS65 KPIH 161936
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
136 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW WILL BE CROSSING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS KEEPS SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN MOIST UNSTABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION .1 TO .2 INCH SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH TRIES TO CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA ABOUT NOON ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS FURTHER
COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT DROPPING INTO IDAHO BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MULTIPLE MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN HINT AT WRAP
AROUND CIRCULATION DEVELOPING THAT MAINTAINS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. INSTABILITY IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
QUALIFY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. RS

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEHIND AN EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TROUGHING AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE AREA
WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOOK
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON STATION FOR ALL SITES LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID TOMORROW MORNING. DURING PERIOD OF SHOWERS...CIGS/VIS
WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR/IFR BEFORE COMING VFR BY MID TO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. WYATT
&&


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$