Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
283 FXZS60 NSTU 280046 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 146 PM SST Sat Apr 27 2024 .DISCUSSION... Open cell cumuli clouds associated with a high pressure system to the south continues to stream across the islands as it brings brief passing showers over the area. This phenomenon will continue for the rest of the day through tonight. These conditions are further supported by the upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (28/00Z), showing a conditionally stable atmosphere; A hint of moisture and possible thunderstorm activity is expected within the area of responsibility (AOR). Furthermore, model solutions show a surface trough to the east, near the Cook Islands, migrating westward. This trough is expected to increase the potential for showers in the area on Sunday night. As the aforementioned high pressure to the south migrates east-southeast throughout this period, a moderate to fresh easterly flow with embedded showers will move into the area by midweek, as it also pushes the aforementioned trough further west. The easterly flow will continue through at least Thursday. Models are showing a trough to the north with an embedded low pressure system, migrating south over the territory. With the latter trough moving over the area, easterly winds will shift northeast and decrease to a more gentle to moderate breeze. Although winds are expected to decrease, showers will likely increase for the latter part of the new week. Therefore, expect scattered showers for tonight through Sunday, increasing to numerous showers Sunday night with moderate to fresh easterlies. The easterly flow with numerous showers embedded will remain for the majority of the new week through at least Thursday, increasing to widespread showers and moderate northeasterly winds on Friday through the end of the forecast period. && .Marine... Observations of white caps and slightly choppy conditions throughout the day further supports model and satellite data in the area. Combined seas of 6 to 8 feet will remain for tonight subsiding to 5 to 7 feet on Sunday through at least Monday. Additionally, a swell from the east-southeast is expected to elevate seas back to 6 to 8 feet on Monday night through the end of the forecast period. This coincides with the moderate to fresh easterlies expected for this time frame. Therefore, the small craft advisory remains in effect. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTA