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000
FXUS66 KPQR 221527
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
826 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
PACIFIC NW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING A COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE WEEKEND...REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL WA THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. WITH ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY AND THE UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER THE REGION...NO REASON TO EXPECT SHOWERS TO ABATE.
WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL IN WITH
THE SHOWERS TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PIN-WHEELING AROUND
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH SHOWERS AND UNSEASONAL COOL
TEMPERATURES BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURES. MODELS HINT OF WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 KFT TODAY..THEN GRADUALLY RISE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ABOVE PASS LEVEL ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BUT LINGER AROUND OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY ON MONDAY...BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVENT TOTAL DRYING. ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...MON
NIGHT OR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...NOT A GOOD DAY FOR FLYING. CURRENTLY HAVE A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR...WITH THE WORST OVER THE INTERIOR. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS AM AS A MORE STEADY RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVES. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
HIGHER CASCADES AND PASSES OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND SNOW. PRECIP
BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AFTER 03Z... WITH MOSTLY LOW VFR AND HIGH END
MVFR CIGS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AND RAIN ON TAP THROUGH 03Z. WILL
SEE BRIEF BREAKS BETWEEN THE MVFR...BUT OVERALL CIGS 1500 TO 2000
THROUGH 03Z. TURNING MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT. BUT CIGS LOW VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS DUE TO COOL MOIST AIR MASS REMAINING. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE. W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE...GENERALLY IN 10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE TODAY.
WINDS WILL EASE BACK SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS GRADIENTS RELAX.
NOT MUCH WINDS THROUGH SUN AS LOWER PRES REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

SEAS GENERALLY 10 TO 12 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THU...DROPPING BELOW 10 FT BY MIDDAY THU. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN.           ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
          THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...FROM 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
          FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
          THIS EVENING.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.