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000
FXUS65 KPSR 162215
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
315 PM MST SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE..TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...ENSURING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER FLAT ANTI-CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AS NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL CREATE A VERY PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY H5 HEIGHTS IN A 585-590DM RANGE AND H8 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +25C AND +28C. WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN BEST PERFORMING
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH OF A FORECAST
REFLECTING TEMPERATURES SOME 2F TO 5F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK (HIGHS 103F TO 110F FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS).

GFS/ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK BUT
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED EAST
OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY ENTRAIN DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM MEXICO...RESULTING IN INCREASING PWATS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. ECMWF IS MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS AT OR BELOW 5 G/KG SUGGEST ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX. NEVERTHELESS...POPS WERE
INCREASED TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...TAKING
WITH IT ANY LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS STEERING ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT /WHICH IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE PHX METRO/ INTO
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TROUGHING THAT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE PAC NW
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 105 TO 110
RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES VARYING FROM
POOR TO FAIR. WINDS TO FOLLOW THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH SOME
GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WINDIER SPOTS.
ENHANCED BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER
ACROSS THE NWS PHOENIX FORECAST FIRE DISTRICTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL RETURN OF
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
ARIZONA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA