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000
FXUS65 KPSR 172125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
THE COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL EXCEED
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER /MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OF
PWS AROUND 0.9 INCHES/ CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAINLY ACROSS LA PAZ AND THE VERY FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF MARICOPA
COUNTY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER PUT THE BRAKES
ON AFTERNOON TEMPS. KPHX WAS MAKING A SOLID RUN TOWARD 100 EARLIER
THIS MORNING...TEMPS AT 11AM WERE ALREADY ABOVE 90. SINCE
THEN...WEVE TOPPED OUT AT 94. WHILE WE COULD STILL REALIZE A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF WARMING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...96 SHOULD
STILL HOLD FOR A HIGH.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES...COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION
TONIGHT...MODEST POST-FRONTAL DRY ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING WITH MOST DESERT LOCALES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 60S. SIMILARLY...TEMPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE
IT INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S BUT THIS SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY STRONG MAY SUN ANGLE. A FEW DEGREES OF BL WARMING IS
FORECAST FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY BUT STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY AND
REMAINING SQUARELY OVER ARIZONA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS REACHING 100-105 AT MOST DESERT LOCATIONS THIS WEEK WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIP. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT ASIDE FROM SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN CU...THE IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. INHERITED FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPS/SKY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
A WEAK...AND DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CIGS TO THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES TO OCCUR EARLY ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO DIMINISH...AND REVERT BACK TO THE
USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WESTERLY
BREEZES REDEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A RATHER SHARP CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...AND REVERT
BACK TO THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH...THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER...STRONGER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR 100F AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS EACH DAY..WITH AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 8-12 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA