Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
405 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

As of 3 am, thunderstorms were moving southeastward thru northeast
CO. There is a chance that some showers/tstms could move thru the
far sern CO plains nr the KS border in the early morning. Otherwise,
it looks like generally dry weather can be expected in the morning
hours today.

An upper level ridge wl remain centered ovr the Great Basin today
and tonight, with the forecast area being under the front side of
the ridge.  Western portions of the forecast are wl still be
relatively dry and only isold showers/tstms are expected. In the
afternoon, an upr disturbance wl be moving from wrn NE and northeast
CO and into KS. This wl then send a front into sern CO late this
afternoon and thru the evening hours.

Around midday, some showers/tstms wl probably develop ovr some of
the mtn areas. The front is then expected to push into El Paso
county this afternoon and could help kick off some tstms in that
area.  There are some model differences in how fast the front moves
southward thru the sern CO plains this afternoon and evening.
However, as it does move thru the area we wl see an increase in low
level mstr and see some tstm development acrs the plains. Also, with
the increase in low level mstr, CAPE values in the evening hours ovr
the ern plains are expected to be 2000+ J/kg. With the passage of
the front, shear values also increase to 40-50kts.  As a result, SPC
has portions of the sern plains in a slight risk area for severe
storms, with the enhanced risk area brushing far ern Kiowa county.
The NAM shows an MCS affecting the far sern plains later tonight,
while the GFS is keeping this feature farther east. If the NAM pans
out, in addition to the severe storm threat, there wl also be a
threat of heavy rainfall ovr areas like Kiowa and Prowers counties
thru maybe 2 am or so.  Then, widespread low clouds wl be likely
acrs most of the sern plains with the potential for some light pcpn
into Fri morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Friday-Saturday...Weak to moderate north to northwest flow across
the state Friday becomes more westerly through the day Saturday, as
upper level high pressure across the Desert SW and southern Great
Basin is slowly pushed east across the state by an upper level
trough digging across the Pac NW and into the Great Basin. Moist
low level upslope developing behind a front moving across the
eastern plains Thursday evening will allow for some stratus to
develop across the plains into Friday morning with upslope flow
and moisture remaining in place through the day. Latest models
continue to indicate another short wave digging down the backside
of the high across the Northern Rockies Friday helping to develop
storms across the higher terrain Friday afternoon, with storms
spreading southeast across the adjacent plains through the late
Friday afternoon and possible out across the far se plains through
Friday evening, though latest models are indicating the far
eastern Plains remaining too stable. Storms could be strong to
severe across the eastern mts and adjacent plains with large hail,
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the main threats.
Convection that can develop across the central and southwest
mountains would be high based and produce more wind than rain.

Models indicating a slight increase in mid and upper level moisture
across southern portions of the area on Saturday under the building
ridge aloft. This supports slightly better chances of afternoon and
evening storms across the eastern San Juan Mts and southern Sangre
de Cristo Mts and adjacent plains on Saturday, with isolated storms
remaining possible across the rest of the area. Temperatures on
Friday and Saturday to be at or above seasonal averages across the
western half of the area, with temps cooler than normal across the
eastern plains on Friday and around seasonal averages on Saturday.

Sunday-Wednesday...Latest models continue to indicate the upper high
moving east of the area through the middle of next week as the Pac
NW trough translates east across the Northern Tier. This will allow
for monsoonal moisture to increase across the area within weak south
to southwest flow aloft. With that said, should see increasing
chances of daily showers and storms, as well as wetting rains, over
and near the higher terrain through the period, with the far
southeast plains likely becoming capped as the high moves across
state early next week. With the increased convective activity,
temperatures look to be around seasonal averages into early next
week, though will likely spike to above seasonal readings across the
plains as the high moves across the state.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 404 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

This afternoon KCOS could see some tstms in the vcnty aft 20z as a
front moves thru the area and brings the potential for gusty
northeast winds. The chance for tstms at KCOS will probably continue
into the late evening at KCOS. KPUB wl probably see the front and
gusty north to northeast winds after 22z or so, with the potential
for tstms until late evening. Late tonight both KPUB and KCOS are
expected to see low stratus and could see some fog reducing the
vsby.  KALS should have VFR conditions thru the forecast period.
There could be some showers/tstms in the vcnty of KALS late this
afternoon or early this evening, but chances are too low to include
in the forecast at this time.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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