Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...WARM UP CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...

PATCHY STRATUS/FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.  LEE TROF ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS FROM SPREADING WESTWARD...AND MODELS HAVE IT MIXING OUT
QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SUBTLY EVIDENT IN WV PICS ACROSS UT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS CO TODAY WITHIN BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.  MOISTURE IS
MAINLY MID AND HIGH BASED...BUT MODELS SUGGEST WITH MINOR LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE A BIT TODAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW INVERTED V
STRUCTURES...SO THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AND
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND ONLY SPOTTY
LIGHT RAINFALL.  WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF THE POPS IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND CONFINED TO MTN/VALLEY AREAS...HOWEVER CONTDVD REGION
MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WARM SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...AND COULD BE APPROACHING
90 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MTN TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
60S AND 70S...WITH 40S AND 50S ABOVE TIMBERLINE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO LATE.  THIS SHOULD BE CROSSING THE PALMER DIVIDE SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z...AND THROUGH MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TOWARDS 12Z.
STRATUS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.   OVERALL FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IN FACT...KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARM SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WESTERLY WINDS MAY KEEP
IT MIXED MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. MTN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS...WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS MAIN METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES
DURING THE LONGER TERM CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

INITIALLY...NORTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT INCREASED POPS.

THEN...LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS STILL SUGGEST THAT
A ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTRN WILL BE NOTED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS FROM NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN
COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS STILL EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER MODELS THEN BEGIN TO INDICATE THAT A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO WHILE GFS HAS CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA IN COMBINATION WITH
ANOTHER NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURGE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS/NEAR THE CWFA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS OF THE LONGER TERM.

FINALLY...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT
WINDS...EXPECT THAT OUTSIDE OF MONDAY(WHERE BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED)...THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
ABOVE MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH SOME
COOLING POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MOST CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WON`T INCLUDE A TSRA MENTION IN ANY TAFS FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT KPUB AND
KCOS FROM 08Z-12Z. SOME STRATUS AND A FEW LIGHT -SHRA WILL
DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 12Z...WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN


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